[中国肝癌发病率的分析与预测]

Zhang Si-wei, Zheng Rong-shou, Li Ni, Zeng Hong-mei, Dai Zhen, Zou Xiao-nong, Chen Wan-qing

National Office for Cancer Prevention and Control & National Central Cancer Registry, Cancer Hospital (Institute), Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100021, China.

Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2012 Jul;46(7):587-92.

OBJECTIVE

Based on the cancer registry data during 1998 - 2007, to analyze the incidence of liver cancer in China and predict the trend of incidence of liver cancer between 2008 and 2015.

METHODS

Liver cancer incidence data from cancer registry between 1998 and 2007 was collected, including a total of 115 417 cases, covering 446 734 668 person-year. We calculated the annual incidence rate of liver cancer by gender and area. Age-standardized rate (ASR) was calculated by the world's population age structure. JoinPoint software was applied to analyze the incidence trend and calculate annual percent change (APC). Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian Model was used to fit the incidence trend and predict the incidence trend between 2008 and 2015.

RESULTS

From 1998 to 2007, according to the data from cancer registry, the liver cancer incidence was 25.84/100 000 (115 417/446 734 668), with the ASR at 18.82/100 000. In urban areas, the male incidence was 34.30/100 000 (58 353/170 131 309), with ASR at 24.99/100 000; while the female incidence was 12.33/100 000 (20 324/164 830 893), with ASR at 7.99/100 000. In rural areas, the male incidence was 48.56/100 000 (27 378/56 377 236), with ASR at 42.27/100 000; while the female incidence was 16.90/100 000 (9362/55 395 230), with ASR at 13.52/100 000. During the decade, in urban areas, the APC of male and female liver cancer incidence rates were separately 1.1% and -0.5%, with ASR at -0.5% and -1.9%; while in rural areas, the APC of male and female liver cancer incidence rates were separately 3.7% and 3.1%, with ASR at 1.9% and 1.3%. Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian Model predicted that in urban areas, the male and female incidence of liver cancer in 2015 would reach 30.73/100 000 (113 279 cases) and 10.44/100 000 (35 978 cases), with ASR at 23.70/100 000 and 7.21/100 000, respectively; while in rural areas, the incidence rates would increase to 51.67/100 000 (182 382 cases) and 15.03/100 000 (49 580 cases), with ASR at 39.80/100 000 and 10.45/100 000, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of liver cancer will increase between 2008 and 2015, but its ASR will decrease slightly. In the near future, the number of new liver cancer cases will keep increasing. Liver cancer is still the dominant cancer and one key point for cancer prevention and control in China.

目的

基于1998 - 2007年癌症登记数据，分析中国肝癌发病率，并预测2008年至2015年肝癌发病率趋势。

方法

收集1998年至2007年癌症登记处的肝癌发病数据，共115417例，覆盖446734668人年。我们按性别和地区计算肝癌年发病率。年龄标准化率（ASR）按世界人口年龄结构计算。应用JoinPoint软件分析发病趋势并计算年度变化百分比（APC）。采用年龄-时期-队列贝叶斯模型拟合发病趋势并预测2008年至2015年的发病趋势。

结果

1998年至2007年，根据癌症登记数据，肝癌发病率为25.84/10万（115417/446734668），ASR为18.82/10万。在城市地区，男性发病率为34.30/10万（58353/170131309），ASR为24.99/10万；女性发病率为12.33/10万（20324/164830893），ASR为7.99/10万。在农村地区，男性发病率为48.56/10万（27378/56377236），ASR为42.27/10万；女性发病率为16.90/10万（9362/55395230），ASR为13.52/10万。在这十年间，城市地区男性和女性肝癌发病率的APC分别为1.1%和 -0.5%，ASR分别为 -0.5%和 -1.9%；而在农村地区，男性和女性肝癌发病率的APC分别为3.7%和3.1%，ASR分别为1.9%和1.3%。年龄-时期-队列贝叶斯模型预测，在城市地区，2015年男性和女性肝癌发病率将分别达到30.73/10万（113279例）和10.44/10万（35978例），ASR分别为23.70/10万和7.21/10万；而在农村地区，发病率将分别增至51.67/10万（182382例）和15.03/10万（49580例），ASR分别为39.80/10万和10.45/10万。