Zeng Hong-mei, Zheng Rong-shou, Zhang Si-wei, Zou Xiao-nong, Li Ni, Dai Zhen, Chen Wan-qing
National Office for Cancer Prevention and Control & National Central Cancer Registry, Cancer Hospital (Institute), Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100021, China.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2012 Jul;46(7):593-7.
Based on the registered esophageal cancer data from 1998 to 2007, to analyze the incidence of esophageal cancer during the period and then to predict its trend between year 2008 and 2015.
The incidence data of esophageal cancer between 1998 and 2007 were sorted from National Cancer Registry Database. Data from forty selected registries were qualified and recruited in the study, including 86 427 cases in total, covering 446 734 668 person years. Crude incidence rates were calculated by area and gender. The standardized incidence rate was adjusted by World Segi's population composition. JoinPoint software was applied to analyze the 10 years' incidence trend and calculated the annual percentage change, while Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian Model was used to fit the data and predict the incidence between 2008 and 2015.
Between 1998 and 2007, the crude incidence rates among males and females in urban areas were separately 16.58/100 000 (28 207/170 131 309) and 7.14/100 000 (11 761/164 830 893), with standardized rates at 12.06/100 000 and 4.55/100 000, respectively. In rural areas, the crude incidence rates and the standardized rates were separately 51.98/100 000 (29 303/56 377 236) and 47.18/100 000 among males, and 30.97/100 000 (17 156/55 395 230) and 25.30/100 000 among females. During the ten years, the crude incidence trend of esophageal cancer among urban females decreased from 10.29/100 000 (1115/10 838 355) in 1998 to 6.29/100 000 (1387/22 057 787) in 2007. However, the crude incidence rate among rural males increased from 47.69/100 000 (2062/4 323 628) to 54.80/100 000 (4207/7 677 484) in the same period. And the rate among rural females and urban males did not change obviously. After adjusting population structure, in urban areas, the male incidence rate decreased by 2.1% annually and female incidence rate dropped by 7.5% annually. In rural areas, the female incidence rate fell by 1.3% annually, while the male incidence rate remained the same without significant changes. The prediction model estimated that there would be 134 474 new esophageal cancer cases diagnosed in year 2015, including 104 400 males and 30 074 females, while 52 506 cases came from urban areas and the other 81 968 cases were from rural areas.
The esophageal cancer incidence showed a downtrend, especially among urban females. By year 2015, the threat of esophageal cancer will be alleviated.
基于1998年至2007年登记的食管癌数据，分析该时期食管癌的发病率，并预测2008年至2015年期间其发病趋势。
从国家癌症登记数据库中整理出1998年至2007年食管癌的发病数据。本研究选取了40个合格登记处的数据，共计86427例病例，涵盖446734668人年。按地区和性别计算粗发病率。标准化发病率根据世界标准人口构成进行调整。应用JoinPoint软件分析10年的发病趋势并计算年度变化百分比，同时使用年龄-时期-队列贝叶斯模型对数据进行拟合并预测2008年至2015年的发病率。
1998年至2007年期间，城市地区男性和女性的粗发病率分别为16.58/10万（28207/170131309）和7.14/10万（11761/164830893），标准化发病率分别为12.06/10万和4.55/10万。农村地区男性的粗发病率和标准化发病率分别为51.98/10万（29303/56377236）和47.18/10万，女性分别为30.97/10万（17156/55395230）和25.30/10万。在这十年间，城市女性食管癌的粗发病率从1998年的10.29/10万（1115/10838355）降至2007年的6.29/10万（1387/22057787）。然而，同期农村男性的粗发病率从47.69/10万（2062/4323628）增至54.80/10万（4207/7677484）。农村女性和城市男性的发病率无明显变化。调整人口结构后，城市地区男性发病率每年下降2.1%，女性发病率每年下降7.5%。农村地区女性发病率每年下降1.3%，而男性发病率保持不变，无显著变化。预测模型估计，2015年将有134474例新诊断的食管癌病例，其中男性104400例，女性30074例，城市地区52506例，农村地区81968例。
食管癌发病率呈下降趋势，尤其是城市女性。到2015年，食管癌的威胁将得到缓解。
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