Department of Sociology, University of Bielefeld, Bielefeld, Germany,
Int J Public Health. 2012 Dec;57(6):867-74. doi: 10.1007/s00038-012-0406-5. Epub 2012 Sep 4.
This study analyses the effects of different unemployment durations on smoking behaviour in Germany by investigating smoking take-up, relapse, quitting and smoking intensity.
Longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel from the years 1998, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2008 were used to examine the effect of unemployment (52,940 observations from 17,028 respondents, aged 17-65 years). Unemployment duration was measured at 1-6, 7-12, 13-24, and 24+ months. Effects were estimated using zero-inflated negative binomial regressions and fixed effects logistic panel regressions.
The zero-inflated negative binomial regression models suggest that the likelihood of smoking increases with unemployment, while smoking intensity is not affected. However, fixed effects logistic regression models demonstrate that unemployment is neither a significant predictor for taking up smoking, relapsing, nor quitting.
The results indicate that in Germany, there is no direct causal effect of unemployment on smoking behaviour. The observed relationship between smoking and unemployment appears to be driven by stable, unobserved differences between employed and unemployed respondents.
本研究通过调查吸烟起始、复吸、戒烟和吸烟强度，分析德国不同失业持续时间对吸烟行为的影响。
利用德国社会经济面板 1998 年、2001 年、2002 年、2004 年、2006 年和 2008 年的纵向数据，检验失业（17028 名受访者中 52940 个观测值，年龄在 17-65 岁之间）的影响。失业持续时间以 1-6、7-12、13-24 和 24+ 个月来衡量。采用零膨胀负二项回归和固定效应逻辑面板回归来估计影响。
零膨胀负二项回归模型表明，失业会增加吸烟的可能性，而吸烟强度不受影响。然而，固定效应逻辑回归模型表明，失业并不是吸烟起始、复吸或戒烟的显著预测因素。
结果表明，在德国，失业对吸烟行为没有直接的因果影响。吸烟和失业之间观察到的关系似乎是由就业和失业受访者之间稳定的、不可观察的差异驱动的。
