Chen Cao-Cao, Zhang Yan, Liu Chun-Lan, Wang Hai-Hua, Li Zheng
Beijing Municipal Research Institute of Environmental Protection, Beijing 100037, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2012 Jun;33(6):2139-44.
In this paper, the Johansen cointegration technique and the vector error correction model (VECM) were used to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption (LEC) and gross domestic product (LGDP) for Beijing during the period of 1980 to 2008. Results indicated that LEC and LGDP for Beijing were related by one cointegrating vector and there was a long-run unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to energy consumption. The long-term and short-term elasticity from economy to energy consumption were 0.44 and 0.12 separately. Statistic analysis showed that from 1980 to 2008 every 1% growth in GDP annually would drive energy consumption increasing rate by 0.4% correspondently. And the effect imposed from economy to energy consumption was lagging. It showed that energy consumption was not a strong exogenous variable as to economy. The finding has significant implications from the point of view of energy conservation, emission reduction and economic development.
本文运用Johansen协整技术和向量误差修正模型（VECM），对1980年至2008年期间北京的能源消费（LEC）与国内生产总值（LGDP）之间的因果关系进行了检验。结果表明，北京的LEC和LGDP由一个协整向量联系起来，并且存在从GDP到能源消费的长期单向因果关系。经济对能源消费的长期和短期弹性分别为0.44和0.12。统计分析表明，1980年至2008年期间，GDP每年每增长1%，将相应带动能源消费增长率提高0.4%。而且经济对能源消费的影响具有滞后性。这表明，就经济而言，能源消费并非一个强大的外生变量。从节能减排和经济发展的角度来看，这一发现具有重要意义。
