Research Center of Agricultural-Rural-Peasants, Anhui University, Hefei, China.
School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2019 Jul;26(21):21760-21773. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-05550-y. Epub 2019 May 27.
Energy affects the economic growth and development of a country. Renewable energy has become an important part of the world's energy consumption. The use of fossil fuel energy contributes to global warming and carbon dioxide emissions, and has a detrimental effect on the environment. The long-run and short-run causality relationships between electric power consumption, renewable electricity output, renewable energy consumption, fossil fuel energy consumption, energy use, carbon dioxide emissions, and gross domestic product per capita for Pakistan over the period of 1990-2017 were investigated in this paper using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to cointegration. The augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test and the Phillips-Perron unit root test were used to check the stationarity of the variables, while the Johansen cointegration test was applied to check the robustness of the long-run relationships. The Granger causality test under the vector error correction model extracted during the short-run estimation showed a unidirectional relationship among all variables except for the relationship between gross domestic product per capita and carbon dioxide emission, which was bidirectional (feedback hypothesis). The evidence showed that in the long run, carbon dioxide emissions, electric power consumption, and renewable electricity output had a positive and significant relationship with the gross domestic product per capita, while the relationship of renewable energy consumption, energy use, and fossil fuel energy consumption with the gross domestic product per capita had a negative effect. Overall, the long-run effects of the variables were found to have a stronger effect on the gross domestic product per capita than the short-run dynamics, which indicated that the findings were heterogeneous. The evidence suggests that the government of Pakistan should take steps to enhance the use of renewable energy resources to resolve the energy crisis in the country and introduce new policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
能源影响一个国家的经济增长和发展。可再生能源已成为世界能源消耗的重要组成部分。化石燃料能源的使用导致全球变暖及二氧化碳排放，并对环境造成不利影响。本文利用自回归分布滞后边界检验协整方法，研究了 1990-2017 年期间巴基斯坦电力消费、可再生电力产出、可再生能源消费、化石燃料能源消费、能源利用、二氧化碳排放与人均国内生产总值之间的长期和短期因果关系。采用增广迪基-富勒单位根检验和菲利普斯-珀罗单位根检验来检验变量的平稳性，同时应用约翰森协整检验来检验长期关系的稳健性。在短期估计过程中提取的向量误差修正模型下的格兰杰因果检验表明，除人均国内生产总值与二氧化碳排放之间存在双向关系（反馈假说）外，所有变量之间均存在单向关系。研究结果表明，从长期来看，二氧化碳排放、电力消费和可再生电力产出与人均国内生产总值呈正相关且显著相关，而可再生能源消费、能源利用和化石燃料能源消费与人均国内生产总值之间呈负相关。总体而言，变量的长期效应对人均国内生产总值的影响大于短期动态，这表明结果存在异质性。研究结果表明，巴基斯坦政府应采取措施，加强可再生能源资源的利用，以解决该国的能源危机，并引入新政策来减少二氧化碳排放。
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