Ecol Evol. 2012 Aug;2(8):1922-34. doi: 10.1002/ece3.298. Epub 2012 Jul 12.
Life-history theory predicts an increasing rate of population growth among species arranged along a continuum from slow to fast life histories. We examine the effects of this continuum on density-feedback strength estimated using long-term census data from >700 vertebrates, invertebrates, and plants. Four life-history traits (Age at first reproduction, Body size, Fertility, Longevity) were related statistically to Gompertz strength of density feedback using generalized linear mixed-effects models and multi-model inference. Life-history traits alone explained 10 to 30% of the variation in strength across species (after controlling for time-series length and phylogenetic nonindependence). Effect sizes were largest for body size in mammals and longevity in birds, and density feedback was consistently stronger for smaller-bodied and shorter-lived species. Overcompensatory density feedback (strength <-1) occurred in 20% of species, predominantly at the fast end of the life-history continuum, implying relatively high population variability. These results support the idea that life history leaves an evolutionary signal in long-term population trends as inferred from census data. Where there is a lack of detailed demographic data, broad life-history information can inform management and conservation decisions about rebound capacity from low numbers, and propensity to fluctuate, of arrays of species in areas planned for development, harvesting, protection, and population recovery.
生活史理论预测，在一个从慢到快的生命史连续体上排列的物种中，种群增长率会增加。我们利用来自 700 多种脊椎动物、无脊椎动物和植物的长期普查数据，研究了这种连续体对密度反馈强度的估计的影响。使用广义线性混合效应模型和多模型推理，我们将四个生活史特征（首次繁殖年龄、体型、繁殖力、寿命）与密度反馈的 Gompertz 强度进行了统计学关联。在控制时间序列长度和系统发育非独立性后，生活史特征单独解释了物种间强度变化的 10%至 30%（after controlling for time-series length and phylogenetic nonindependence）。体型在哺乳动物和寿命在鸟类中的作用最大，而体型较小和寿命较短的物种的密度反馈一直更强。20%的物种出现了过补偿性密度反馈（strength <-1），主要集中在生命史连续体的快速端，这意味着种群的可变性相对较高。这些结果支持了这样一种观点，即生活史在从普查数据推断的长期种群趋势中留下了进化信号。在缺乏详细的人口统计数据的情况下，广泛的生活史信息可以为管理和保护决策提供信息，了解在计划开发、收获、保护和种群恢复的地区，物种数组从低数量反弹的能力和波动倾向。
