Cristelli Matthieu, Zaccaria Andrea, Pietronero Luciano
Department of Physics, University of Rome Sapienza, Piazzale Aldo Moro 5, 00185 Rome, Italy.
Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2012 Jun;85(6 Pt 2):066108. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.85.066108. Epub 2012 Jun 8.
We identify an important correlation between skewness and kurtosis for a broad class of complex dynamic systems and present a specific analysis of earthquake and financial time series. Two regimes of non-Gaussianity can be identified: a parabolic one, which is common in various fields of physics, and a power law one, with exponent 4/3, which at the moment appears to be specific of earthquakes and financial markets. For this property we propose a model and an interpretation in terms of very rare events dominating the statistics independently on the nature of the events considered. The predicted scaling relation between skewness and kurtosis matches very well the experimental pattern of the second regime. Regarding price fluctuations, this situation characterizes a universal stylized fact.
我们发现了一类广泛的复杂动态系统中偏度和峰度之间的重要相关性,并对地震和金融时间序列进行了具体分析。可以识别出两种非高斯状态:一种是抛物线型的,在物理学的各个领域都很常见;另一种是幂律型的,指数为4/3,目前似乎是地震和金融市场所特有的。针对这一特性,我们提出了一个模型,并根据非常罕见的事件主导统计数据这一点进行了解释,而与所考虑事件的性质无关。预测的偏度和峰度之间的标度关系与第二种状态的实验模式非常吻合。关于价格波动,这种情况是一个普遍的典型事实。