[Evolution of spatial-temporal pattern of schistosome infection rates in Nanchang County, Jiangxi Province].

OBJECTIVE

To explore the evolution of spatial-temporal pattern of schistosome infection rates in Nanchang County, Jiangxi Province.

METHODS

Based on the data of schistosome infection rates at unit of administrative villages during 2006 to 2009, the evolution of spatial-temporal pattern of schistosome infection rates was analyzed by means of global Moran's I, Getis-Ord General G, local Getis-Ord Gi and variogram.

RESULTS

Since 2006, the global Moran's I index increased, and all the Getis-Ord General G index G (d) values were 0.02, all the Z(d) values were of statistic significance (all P values were < 0.01). The hotspots mainly distributed in the northeast and southeast of the county, while the cold spots and secondary cold spots mainly distributed in the southwest. The optimal fitted variograms of the 3 years were all Gaussian model, the Nugget coefficient decreased from 0.026 to 0.006. The spatial autocorrelation of schistosome infection rates got stronger, the ranges shrank by 9.04%.

CONCLUSION

The schistosome infection rates in Nanchang County have a tendency of clustering towards the areas along the lake, and the impact of the structural factors is increasing, but the effect range of spatial correlation is decreasing.