Unit of Biomarkers and Susceptibility (UBS), Catalan Institute of Oncology (ICO), Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute (IDIBELL), and CIBERESP, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain.
PLoS One. 2012;7(11):e48877. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0048877. Epub 2012 Nov 7.
INTRODUCTION: The traditional staging system is inadequate to identify those patients with stage II colorectal cancer (CRC) at high risk of recurrence or with stage III CRC at low risk. A number of gene expression signatures to predict CRC prognosis have been proposed, but none is routinely used in the clinic. The aim of this work was to assess the prediction ability and potential clinical usefulness of these signatures in a series of independent datasets. METHODS: A literature review identified 31 gene expression signatures that used gene expression data to predict prognosis in CRC tissue. The search was based on the PubMed database and was restricted to papers published from January 2004 to December 2011. Eleven CRC gene expression datasets with outcome information were identified and downloaded from public repositories. Random Forest classifier was used to build predictors from the gene lists. Matthews correlation coefficient was chosen as a measure of classification accuracy and its associated p-value was used to assess association with prognosis. For clinical usefulness evaluation, positive and negative post-tests probabilities were computed in stage II and III samples. RESULTS: Five gene signatures showed significant association with prognosis and provided reasonable prediction accuracy in their own training datasets. Nevertheless, all signatures showed low reproducibility in independent data. Stratified analyses by stage or microsatellite instability status showed significant association but limited discrimination ability, especially in stage II tumors. From a clinical perspective, the most predictive signatures showed a minor but significant improvement over the classical staging system. CONCLUSIONS: The published signatures show low prediction accuracy but moderate clinical usefulness. Although gene expression data may inform prognosis, better strategies for signature validation are needed to encourage their widespread use in the clinic.
简介:传统的分期系统不足以识别出 II 期结直肠癌(CRC)中复发风险高或 III 期 CRC 中复发风险低的患者。已经提出了许多用于预测 CRC 预后的基因表达谱,但没有一种在临床上常规使用。本研究旨在评估这些特征在一系列独立数据集的预测能力和潜在临床应用价值。
方法:文献综述确定了 31 个基因表达谱,这些谱使用基因表达数据预测 CRC 组织的预后。该搜索基于 PubMed 数据库,并限制在 2004 年 1 月至 2011 年 12 月期间发表的论文。从公共存储库中确定并下载了 11 个具有生存信息的 CRC 基因表达数据集。随机森林分类器用于从基因列表中构建预测器。马修斯相关系数被选为分类准确性的度量标准,其相关的 p 值用于评估与预后的相关性。为了评估临床应用价值,在 II 期和 III 期样本中计算了阳性和阴性后测试概率。
结果:五个基因特征与预后显著相关,并在其自身的训练数据集中提供了合理的预测准确性。然而,所有特征在独立数据中的重现性都较低。按阶段或微卫星不稳定性状态进行的分层分析显示出显著的相关性,但区分能力有限,尤其是在 II 期肿瘤中。从临床角度来看,最具预测性的特征与经典分期系统相比略有但显著的改善。
结论:已发表的特征显示出较低的预测准确性,但具有中等的临床应用价值。尽管基因表达数据可以提供预后信息,但需要更好的特征验证策略来鼓励其在临床中广泛应用。
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