LMAH, Normandy University, Le Havre, France.
J Theor Biol. 2013 Feb 7;318:129-39. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2012.11.008. Epub 2012 Nov 12.
In this paper we study the influence of populations mobility on the spread of a vector-borne disease. We focus on the chikungunya epidemic event that occurred in 2005-2006 on the Réunion Island, Indian Ocean, France, and validate our models with real epidemic data from the event. We propose a metapopulation model to represent both a high-resolution patch model of the island with realistic population densities and also mobility models for humans (based on real-motion data) and mosquitoes. In this metapopulation network, two models are coupled: one for the dynamics of the mosquito population and one for the transmission of the disease. A high-resolution numerical model is created from real geographical, demographical and mobility data. The Island is modeled with an 18,000-nodes metapopulation network. Numerical results show the impact of the geographical environment and populations' mobility on the spread of the disease. The model is finally validated against real epidemic data from the Réunion event.
在本文中，我们研究了人口流动对媒介传播疾病传播的影响。我们关注的是 2005-2006 年在印度洋法属留尼汪岛发生的基孔肯雅热疫情，并利用该事件的真实疫情数据验证了我们的模型。我们提出了一个元种群模型来表示岛屿的高分辨率斑块模型，以及人类（基于实际运动数据）和蚊子的流动模型。在这个元种群网络中，耦合了两个模型：一个用于蚊子种群的动态，另一个用于疾病的传播。从真实的地理、人口和流动数据创建了一个高分辨率数值模型。该岛采用了一个包含 18000 个节点的元种群网络进行建模。数值结果表明了地理环境和人口流动对疾病传播的影响。最后，该模型针对留尼汪岛疫情的真实疫情数据进行了验证。
