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Soc Sci Med. 2013 Jan;76(1):83-91. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2012.10.008. Epub 2012 Nov 7.
There is growing concern that climate change will lead to more frequent natural disasters that may adversely affect short- and long-term health outcomes in developing countries. Prior research has primarily focused on the impact of single, large disaster events but very little is known about how small and moderate disasters, which are more typical, affect population health. In this paper, we present one of the first investigations of the impact of small and moderate disasters on childhood morbidity, physical growth, and immunizations by combining household data on over 80,000 children from three waves of the Indian National Family and Health Survey with an international database of natural disasters (EM-DAT). We find that exposure to a natural disaster in the past month increases the likelihood of acute illnesses such as diarrhea, fever, and acute respiratory illness in children under 5 year by 9-18%. Exposure to a disaster in the past year reduces height-for-age and weight-for-age z-scores by 0.12-0.15 units, increases the likelihood of stunting and underweight by 7%, and reduces the likelihood of having full age-appropriate immunization coverage by nearly 18%. We also find that disasters' effects vary significantly by gender, age, and socioeconomic characteristics. Most notably, the adverse effects on growth outcomes are much smaller among boys, infants, and families with more socioeconomic resources.
人们越来越担心气候变化将导致更频繁的自然灾害，这些灾害可能会对发展中国家的短期和长期健康状况产生不利影响。先前的研究主要集中在单一、大型灾害事件的影响上，但对于更常见的小型和中型灾害如何影响人口健康，人们知之甚少。在本文中，我们通过将来自印度国家家庭健康调查三波的超过 80000 名儿童的家庭数据与自然灾害国际数据库（EM-DAT）相结合，首次调查了小型和中型灾害对儿童发病率、身体生长和免疫接种的影响。我们发现，在过去一个月内暴露于自然灾害会使 5 岁以下儿童患腹泻、发烧和急性呼吸道疾病等急性疾病的可能性增加 9-18%。在过去一年中暴露于灾害会使身高年龄和体重年龄 z 分数降低 0.12-0.15 个单位，使发育迟缓的可能性增加 7%，并使完全符合年龄的免疫接种覆盖率降低近 18%。我们还发现，灾害的影响因性别、年龄和社会经济特征而有很大差异。最值得注意的是，男孩、婴儿和社会经济资源较多的家庭的生长结果的不良影响要小得多。
