School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, 900 S. Cady Mall, Tempe, AZ 85287-2402, USA.
BMC Med. 2012 Dec 7;10:159. doi: 10.1186/1741-7015-10-159.
We discuss models for rapidly disseminating infectious diseases during mass gatherings (MGs), using influenza as a case study. Recent innovations in modeling and forecasting influenza transmission dynamics at local, regional, and global scales have made influenza a particularly attractive model scenario for MG. We discuss the behavioral, medical, and population factors for modeling MG disease transmission, review existing model formulations, and highlight key data and modeling gaps related to modeling MG disease transmission. We argue that the proposed improvements will help integrate infectious-disease models in MG health contingency plans in the near future, echoing modeling efforts that have helped shape influenza pandemic preparedness plans in recent years.
我们讨论了在人群聚集（MG）期间快速传播传染病的模型，以流感为例。最近在地方、地区和全球范围内对流感传播动力学进行建模和预测的创新，使得流感成为 MG 特别有吸引力的模型情景。我们讨论了用于 MG 疾病传播建模的行为、医学和人口因素，回顾了现有的模型公式，并强调了与 MG 疾病传播建模相关的关键数据和建模差距。我们认为，所提出的改进将有助于在不久的将来将传染病模型纳入 MG 卫生应急计划，这呼应了近年来帮助塑造流感大流行防范计划的建模工作。
