Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory and Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA.
Ecol Lett. 2013 Mar;16(3):409-19. doi: 10.1111/ele.12058. Epub 2013 Jan 1.
The polar regions are experiencing rapid climate change with implications for terrestrial ecosystems. Here, despite limited knowledge, we make some early predictions on soil invertebrate community responses to predicted twenty-first century climate change. Geographic and environmental differences suggest that climate change responses will differ between the Arctic and Antarctic. We predict significant, but different, belowground community changes in both regions. This change will be driven mainly by vegetation type changes in the Arctic, while communities in Antarctica will respond to climate amelioration directly and indirectly through changes in microbial community composition and activity, and the development of, and/or changes in, plant communities. Climate amelioration is likely to allow a greater influx of non-native species into both the Arctic and Antarctic promoting landscape scale biodiversity change. Non-native competitive species could, however, have negative effects on local biodiversity particularly in the Arctic where the communities are already species rich. Species ranges will shift in both areas as the climate changes potentially posing a problem for endemic species in the Arctic where options for northward migration are limited. Greater soil biotic activity may move the Arctic towards a trajectory of being a substantial carbon source, while Antarctica could become a carbon sink.
极地地区正经历着快速的气候变化，这对陆地生态系统有着重要的影响。尽管我们目前对这一领域的了解还很有限，但我们可以对土壤无脊椎动物群落对二十一世纪预计气候变化的响应做出一些初步预测。由于地理位置和环境的差异，北极和南极地区的气候变化响应可能会有所不同。我们预测这两个地区的地下群落都会发生显著的变化，但变化的类型会有所不同。在北极，这种变化主要是由植被类型的变化驱动的，而在南极洲，群落将通过微生物群落组成和活性的变化、植物群落的发展和/或变化，以及气候的改善，直接或间接地做出响应。气候的改善可能会使更多的非本地物种涌入北极和南极地区，从而促进景观尺度的生物多样性变化。然而，非本地竞争物种可能会对当地的生物多样性产生负面影响，特别是在已经物种丰富的北极地区。随着气候的变化，物种的分布范围将会发生变化，这可能会对北极地区的特有物种造成问题，因为它们向北迁徙的选择有限。更大的土壤生物活性可能会使北极地区朝着成为一个重要的碳源的方向发展，而南极洲则可能成为一个碳汇。
