Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 North Wolfe Street, Room E7648, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.
Am J Epidemiol. 2013 Jan 15;177(2):116-25. doi: 10.1093/aje/kws321. Epub 2013 Jan 3.
Parametric and semiparametric competing risks methods were used to estimate proportions, timing, and predictors of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related and non-AIDS-related mortality among individuals both positive and negative for the human immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV) in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) and Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) from 1984 to 2008 and 1996 to 2008, respectively. Among HIV-positive MACS participants, the proportion of deaths unrelated to AIDS increased from 6% before the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) (before 1996) to 53% in the HAART era (P < 0.01); the median age of persons who died from non-AIDS-related causes after age 35 years increased from 49.0 to 66.0 years (P < 0.01). In both cohorts during the HAART era, median ages at time of non-AIDS-related death were younger for HIV-positive individuals than for comparable HIV-negative individuals (8.7 years younger in MACS (P < 0.01) and 7.6 years younger in WIHS (P < 0.01)). In a multivariate proportional cause-specific hazards model, unemployment (for non-AIDS death, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.8; for AIDS death, HR = 2.3), depression (for non-AIDS death, HR = 1.4; for AIDS death, HR = 1.4), and hepatitis B or C infection (for non-AIDS death, HR = 1.8, for AIDS death; HR = 1.4) were significantly (P < 0.05) associated with higher hazards of both non-AIDS and AIDS mortality among HIV-positive individuals in the HAART era, independent of study cohort. The results illuminate the changing face of mortality among the growing population infected with HIV.
采用参数和半参数竞争风险方法,估算了 1984 年至 2008 年期间在多中心艾滋病队列研究(MACS)和妇女艾滋病机构间研究(WIHS)中人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)阳性和阴性个体中获得性免疫缺陷综合征(AIDS)相关和非 AIDS 相关死亡率的比例、时间和预测因素。在 MACS 中的 HIV 阳性参与者中,在开始高效抗逆转录病毒治疗(HAART)之前(1996 年之前),与 AIDS 无关的死亡比例从 6%增加到 HAART 时代的 53%(P<0.01);35 岁以后死于非 AIDS 相关原因的人的中位数年龄从 49.0 岁增加到 66.0 岁(P<0.01)。在 HAART 时代,两个队列中,HIV 阳性个体的非 AIDS 相关死亡的中位年龄均比可比的 HIV 阴性个体年轻(MACS 中年轻 8.7 岁(P<0.01),WIHS 中年轻 7.6 岁(P<0.01))。在多变量比例原因特异性危害模型中,失业(非 AIDS 死亡,危害比(HR)=1.8;AIDS 死亡,HR=2.3)、抑郁(非 AIDS 死亡,HR=1.4;AIDS 死亡,HR=1.4)和乙型或丙型肝炎感染(非 AIDS 死亡,HR=1.8,AIDS 死亡,HR=1.4)与 HAART 时代 HIV 阳性个体的非 AIDS 和 AIDS 死亡率升高显著相关(P<0.05),与研究队列无关。这些结果阐明了在感染 HIV 的不断增长的人群中死亡率的变化。