[网络放大法在重庆市男男性行为人群规模估计中的应用]

[Application on size estimation through the network scale-up method on men who have sex with men in Chongqing municipality].

作者信息

Bao Shui-Lian, Wu Guo-Hui, Zhang Wei, Zhou Chao, Guo Wei, Zhou Xin-Lei, Wang Lu

机构信息

National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.

出版信息

Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2012 Oct;33(10):1036-9.

PMID:23290846

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the size of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Chongqing municipality.

METHODS

A community based investigation was conducted in Chongqing to estimate the number of personal social network (c value) in the general population through the network scale-up method (NSUM). All the participants were selected by multistage sampling randomly. Factors as c value, the number of acquaintance of MSM and its respective coefficient were used to estimate and adjust the size of MSM in Chongqing.

RESULTS

The average size of personal social network for Chongqing residents was 330, with differences among place (P < 0.001), sex (P < 0.0001), age (P < 0.0001), education level (P < 0.0001). The size of social network changed into 310 after the adjustment on demography, back estimation and elimination of the outliers. The estimated population size for MSM was 16 767 after the adjustment according to the respective levels, with 95%CI from 14 602 to 18 932, which accounted for 0.21% of the total number of males, aged from 15 to 49 in Chongqing municipality.

CONCLUSION

NSUM was a new method for estimation of population size, which seemed worthy in promoting the practice of NSUM for its efficiency.

摘要

目的

估算重庆市男男性行为者（MSM）的规模。

方法

在重庆开展一项基于社区的调查，通过网络扩大法（NSUM）估算普通人群个人社交网络规模（c值）。所有参与者均采用多阶段随机抽样选取。利用c值、MSM熟人数量及其各自系数等因素估算并调整重庆市MSM的规模。

结果

重庆居民个人社交网络平均规模为330，在地区（P<0.001）、性别（P<0.0001）、年龄（P<0.0001）、教育水平（P<0.0001）方面存在差异。经人口统计学调整、反向估计及剔除异常值后，社交网络规模变为310。根据各自水平调整后，MSM估计人口规模为16767，95%置信区间为14602至18932，占重庆市15至49岁男性总数的0.21%。