State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
JMIR Mhealth Uhealth. 2020 Jan 24;8(1):e14800. doi: 10.2196/14800.
In China, the cases of newly diagnosed HIV/AIDS in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased more than tenfold since 2006. However, the MSM population size, geographical distribution, and migration patterns are largely unknown.
Our aim is to estimate the number, spatial distribution, and migration of MSM populations in mainland China using big data from social networking.
We collected 85 days of data on online users of a social networking MSM app in mainland China. Daily online MSM users and their migration across the country were investigated during a holiday period and a nonholiday period. Using the capture-mark-recapture model, we designed an experiment consisting of two independent samples to estimate the total provincial MSM population.
The estimate of MSM in mainland China was 8,288,536 (95% CI 8,274,931-8,302,141), accounting for 1.732% (95% CI 1.729%-1.734%) of adult men aged 18 to 64 years. The average daily number of MSM social networking online across mainland China was 1,198,682 during the nonholiday period. The five provinces (including municipalities) with the highest average number of daily online MSM numbers were Guangdong (n=141,712), Jiangsu (n=90,710), Zhejiang (n=72,212), Shandong (n=68,065), and Beijing (n=66,057). The proportion of daily online MSM among adult men in different cities varied from 0.04% to 0.96%, with a mean of 0.20% (SD 0.14%). Three migrating centers-Guangdong, Beijing, and the Yangtze River Delta (Shanghai-Zhejiang-Jiangsu)-accounted for 57.23% of MSM migrants in the county.
The percentage of MSM among adult men in mainland China is at the middle level compared with other Asia and Pacific countries. However, the number of MSM is very large, and the distribution is uneven. Both MSM distribution and migration are highly affected by socioeconomic status.
自 2006 年以来，中国新诊断的男男性行为者（MSM）艾滋病毒/艾滋病病例增加了十倍以上。然而，MSM 人群的规模、地理分布和迁移模式在很大程度上是未知的。
我们旨在使用社交网络中的大数据来估计中国大陆 MSM 人群的数量、空间分布和迁移情况。
我们收集了中国大陆一个社交网络 MSM 应用程序 85 天的在线用户数据。在假期和非假期期间，调查了每日在线 MSM 用户及其在全国范围内的迁移情况。我们使用捕获-标记-再捕获模型，设计了一个由两个独立样本组成的实验，以估计全省 MSM 总人口。
中国大陆 MSM 的估计人数为 8,288,536（95%置信区间 8,274,931-8,302,141），占 18 至 64 岁成年男性的 1.732%（95%置信区间 1.729%-1.734%）。非假期期间，中国大陆 MSM 社交网络在线的平均每日人数为 1,198,682。广东省（n=141,712）、江苏省（n=90,710）、浙江省（n=72,212）、山东省（n=68,065）和北京市（n=66,057）是每日在线 MSM 人数最高的五个省份（含直辖市）。不同城市成年男性中每日在线 MSM 比例从 0.04%到 0.96%不等，平均值为 0.20%（SD 0.14%）。广东、北京和长江三角洲（上海-浙江-江苏）三个迁移中心占县 MSM 移民的 57.23%。
与其他亚太国家相比，中国大陆成年男性中的 MSM 比例处于中等水平。然而，MSM 的数量非常庞大，分布不均。MSM 的分布和迁移都受到社会经济地位的高度影响。
