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中国太湖流域养分释放建模:源识别与政策意义。

Modeling nutrient release in the Tai Lake basin of China: source identification and policy implications.

机构信息

State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control & Resource Reuse, School of Environment, Nanjing University, 22 Hankou Road, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.

出版信息

Environ Manage. 2013 Mar;51(3):724-37. doi: 10.1007/s00267-012-9999-y. Epub 2013 Jan 16.

DOI:10.1007/s00267-012-9999-y
PMID:23322129
Abstract

Because nutrient enrichment has become increasingly severe in the Tai Lake Basin of China, identifying sources and loads is crucial for watershed nutrient management. This paper develops an empirical framework to estimate nutrient release from five major sectors, which requires fewer input parameters and produces acceptable accuracy. Sectors included are industrial manufacturing, livestock breeding (industrial and family scale), crop agriculture, household consumption (urban and rural), and atmospheric deposition. Results show that in the basin (only the five sectors above), total nutrient loads of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) into aquatic systems in 2008 were 33043.2 tons N a(-1) and 5254.4 tons P a(-1), and annual area-specific nutrient loads were 1.94 tons N km(-2) and 0.31 tons P km(-2). Household consumption was the major sector having the greatest impact (46 % in N load, 47 % in P load), whereas atmospheric deposition (18 %) and crop agriculture (15 %) sectors represented other significant proportions of N load. The load estimates also indicate that 32 % of total P came from the livestock breeding sector, making it the second largest phosphorus contributor. According to the nutrient pollution sectors, six best management practices are selected for cost-effectiveness analysis, and feasible options are recommended. Overall, biogas digester construction on industrial-scale farms is proven the most cost-effective, whereas the building of rural decentralized facilities is the best alternative under extreme financial constraint. However, the reduction potential, average monetary cost, and other factors such as risk tolerance of policy makers should all be considered in the actual decision-making process.

摘要

由于中国太湖流域的营养盐富营养化问题日益严重,确定污染源和负荷对于流域养分管理至关重要。本文开发了一种经验框架来估算五个主要部门的养分释放,该框架需要较少的输入参数,并且具有可接受的准确性。所包括的部门有工业制造业、牲畜养殖(工业和家庭规模)、农作物种植、家庭消费(城市和农村)和大气沉积。结果表明,在该流域(仅包括上述五个部门),2008 年向水生系统输入的氮(N)和磷(P)的总养分负荷分别为 33043.2 吨 N/年和 5254.4 吨 P/年,而每年的面积特定养分负荷分别为 1.94 吨 N/平方公里和 0.31 吨 P/平方公里。家庭消费是影响最大的主要部门(N 负荷占 46%,P 负荷占 47%),而大气沉积(18%)和农作物种植(15%)部门则代表了 N 负荷的其他重要比例。负荷估算还表明,32%的总磷来自牲畜养殖部门,是第二大磷贡献者。根据养分污染部门,选择了六种最佳管理实践进行成本效益分析,并推荐了可行的选择。总体而言,工业规模农场的沼气沼气池建设被证明是最具成本效益的,而在极端财政限制下,农村分散设施的建设是最佳选择。然而,在实际决策过程中,应考虑减排潜力、平均货币成本以及决策者的风险承受能力等因素。

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