Population Research Centre, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands.
Demography. 2013 Aug;50(4):1341-62. doi: 10.1007/s13524-012-0185-x.
We present a new mortality projection methodology that distinguishes smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality and takes into account mortality trends of the opposite sex and in other countries. We evaluate to what extent future projections of life expectancy at birth (e 0) for the Netherlands up to 2040 are affected by the application of these components. All-cause mortality and non-smoking-related mortality for the years 1970-2006 are projected by the Lee-Carter and Li-Lee methodologies. Smoking-related mortality is projected according to assumptions on future smoking-attributable mortality. Projecting all-cause mortality in the Netherlands, using the Lee-Carter model, leads to high gains in e 0 (4.1 for males; 4.4 for females) and divergence between the sexes. Coherent projections, which include the mortality experience of the other 21 sex- and country-specific populations, result in much higher gains for males (6.4) and females (5.7), and convergence. The separate projection of smoking and non-smoking-related mortality produces a steady increase in e 0 for males (4.8) and a nonlinear trend for females, with lower gains in e 0 in the short run, resulting in temporary sex convergence. The latter effect is also found in coherent projections. Our methodology provides more robust projections, especially thanks to the distinction between smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality.
我们提出了一种新的死亡率预测方法，该方法区分了与吸烟和非吸烟相关的死亡率，并考虑了异性和其他国家的死亡率趋势。我们评估了在多大程度上应用这些因素会影响荷兰出生时预期寿命（e0）的未来预测。1970 年至 2006 年的全因死亡率和非吸烟相关死亡率通过 Lee-Carter 和 Li-Lee 方法进行预测。根据未来与吸烟相关的死亡率的假设，预测与吸烟相关的死亡率。使用 Lee-Carter 模型预测荷兰的全因死亡率会导致 e0 大幅增加（男性 4.1；女性 4.4），并且性别之间的差异也会加大。包括其他 21 个按性别和国家划分的人群的死亡率经验的一致预测，会导致男性（6.4）和女性（5.7）的 e0 增加幅度更大，并且性别差距会缩小。吸烟和非吸烟相关死亡率的单独预测会导致男性的 e0 稳步上升（4.8），而女性的趋势是非线性的，短期内 e0 的增幅较低，从而导致暂时性的性别趋同。这种效应也在一致的预测中被发现。我们的方法提供了更稳健的预测，特别是由于区分了与吸烟和非吸烟相关的死亡率。
