Department of Public Health - Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Tilburg School of Economics and Management, Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg, the Netherlands.
BMC Public Health. 2022 Sep 2;22(1):1664. doi: 10.1186/s12889-022-13275-w.
National projections of life expectancy are made periodically by statistical offices or actuarial societies in Europe and are widely used, amongst others for reforms of pension systems. However, these projections may not provide a good estimate of the future trends in life expectancy of different social-economic groups. The objective of this study is to provide insight in future trends in life expectancies for low, mid and high educated men and women living in the Netherlands.
We used a three-layer Li and Lee model with data from neighboring countries to complement Dutch time series.
Our results point at further increases of life expectancy between age 35 and 85 and of remaining life expectancy at age 35 and age 65, for all education groups in the Netherlands. The projected increase in life expectancy is slightly larger among the high educated than among the low educated. Life expectancy of low educated women, particularly between age 35 and 85, shows the smallest projected increase. Our results also suggest that inequalities in life expectancies between high and low educated will be similar or slightly increasing between 2018 and 2048. We see no indication of a decline in inequality between the life expectancy of the low and high educated.
The educational inequalities in life expectancy are expected to persist or slightly increase for both men and women. The persistence and possible increase of inequalities in life expectancy between the educational groups may cause equity concerns of increases in pension age that are equal among all socio-economic groups.
欧洲的统计部门或精算协会定期对预期寿命进行国家预测，并广泛用于养老金制度改革等。然而，这些预测可能无法很好地估计不同社会经济群体预期寿命的未来趋势。本研究的目的是提供对荷兰低、中、高学历男性和女性预期寿命未来趋势的深入了解。
我们使用了三层 Li 和 Lee 模型，并结合了邻国的数据来补充荷兰的时间序列。
我们的结果表明，荷兰所有教育群体的 35 岁至 85 岁之间的预期寿命以及 35 岁和 65 岁时的剩余预期寿命将进一步增加。高学历者的预期寿命增长略高于低学历者。低学历女性的预期寿命，特别是 35 岁至 85 岁之间的预期寿命，预计增长最小。我们的研究结果还表明，2018 年至 2048 年间，高学历者和低学历者之间的预期寿命不平等程度可能相似或略有增加。我们没有看到低学历者和高学历者之间预期寿命不平等程度下降的迹象。
男性和女性的预期寿命不平等程度预计将持续存在或略有增加。在所有社会经济群体中，养老金年龄的增加是平等的，因此，教育群体之间预期寿命不平等的持续存在和可能增加可能会引起对公平性的关注。
