Janssen Fanny, Kunst Anton
Population Research Centre, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, the Netherlands.
Popul Stud (Camb). 2007 Nov;61(3):315-26. doi: 10.1080/00324720701571632.
We explored the extent to which projections of future old-age mortality trends differ when different projection bases are used. For seven European countries, four alternative sets of annual rates of mortality change were estimated with age-period log-linear regression models, and subsequently applied to age-specific all-cause mortality rates (80+) in 1999 to predict mortality levels up to 2050. On average, up to 2050, e80 is predicted to increase further by 2.33 years among men and 4.03 years among women. Choosing a historical period of 25 instead of 50 years results in higher predicted gains in e80 for men but lower gains for women. Choosing non-smoking-related mortality instead of all-cause mortality leads to higher gains for women and mixed results for men. In all alternatives there is a strong divergence of predicted mortality levels between the countries. Future projections should be preceded by a thorough study of past trends and their determinants.
我们探讨了使用不同预测基础时，未来老年死亡率趋势预测的差异程度。对于七个欧洲国家，使用年龄-时期对数线性回归模型估计了四组不同的年度死亡率变化率，随后将其应用于1999年80岁及以上人群的特定年龄全因死亡率，以预测到2050年的死亡率水平。平均而言，到2050年，预计男性的e80将进一步增加2.33岁，女性将增加4.03岁。选择25年而非50年的历史时期，男性的e80预测增幅更高，而女性的增幅更低。选择与非吸烟相关的死亡率而非全因死亡率，女性的增幅更高，男性的结果则好坏参半。在所有替代方案中，各国预测的死亡率水平存在很大差异。未来的预测应该先对过去的趋势及其决定因素进行全面研究。
