Wellington School of Medicine and Health Sciences, Otago University, PO Box 7343, Wellington South, New Zealand.
Accid Anal Prev. 2013 Mar;52:154-61. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2012.12.005. Epub 2013 Jan 15.
Young drivers persistently have higher crash rates despite various countermeasures targeted at their risk factors and exposures. A potentially high risk situation for novice drivers may feasibly include the driving of high performance vehicles, which are subject to restrictions for probationary and restricted drivers in four Australian States. High performance vehicles are capable of high levels of acceleration and speed, which may encourage unsafe driving behaviours, particularly when driven by novice drivers, who may lack appropriate judgement and experience. This research sought to identify potential safety benefits of restrictions on certain vehicles for novice drivers using crash data from Australia and New Zealand, and vehicle licensing data from New Zealand. Data on crashed vehicles and their drivers were analysed to estimate the prevalence of the high performance vehicles in the fleets considered, particularly when driven by young people. By matching New Zealand licensing data with crash data, it was possible to estimate the risk of these high performance vehicles relative to other vehicles in the fleet. For owners aged under 25, a statistically significant 69% elevated injury crash involvement risk ratio was estimated for the high performance vehicles subject to restrictions in Australia in comparison with their risk with other vehicles controlling for other relevant factors (with 95% CI 30-123%, using owners aged 40-59 as a comparison group). Injuries in the vehicles of young owners of high performance vehicles were estimated to increase compared to their rate in other vehicles by 101% (with 95% confidence interval 69-171%, using owners aged 40-59 as a comparison group). Despite the higher relative risk for the high performance vehicles, they were relatively rare in the fleets studied, and the potential reduction in young driver injury rates from banning these vehicles was estimated to range from 0.4% in New Zealand to 2.5% in the Australian States of Queensland and Victoria. In addition, the potential reductions estimated here also depend on unrealistic assumptions of 100% compliance with regulation and the adoption of less risky driving behaviour in response to lower performance vehicles. Although these vehicles have a statistically significantly higher crash and injury risk than other vehicles when owned by young people, there are considerable costs of implementation and ongoing enforcement in imposing vehicle restrictions for young drivers that may not outweigh these potential safety benefits.
尽管针对年轻驾驶员的风险因素和暴露情况采取了各种对策，但他们的事故率仍然居高不下。对于新手驾驶员来说，一个潜在的高风险情况可能是驾驶高性能车辆，而在澳大利亚的四个州，新手驾驶员驾驶高性能车辆会受到限制。高性能车辆具有较高的加速和速度能力，这可能会鼓励不安全的驾驶行为，尤其是当新手驾驶员缺乏适当的判断力和经验时。本研究旨在利用澳大利亚和新西兰的碰撞数据以及新西兰的车辆许可数据，确定对新手驾驶员限制某些车辆的潜在安全益处。分析了碰撞车辆及其驾驶员的数据，以估计所考虑车队中高性能车辆的流行程度，特别是年轻人驾驶时的流行程度。通过将新西兰许可数据与碰撞数据相匹配，可以估计这些受限制的高性能车辆相对于车队中其他车辆的风险。对于年龄在 25 岁以下的车主，与控制其他相关因素（使用年龄在 40-59 岁的车主作为比较组）的情况下，澳大利亚对高性能车辆进行限制后，估计其与其他车辆相比，受伤事故的风险比为 69%（95%置信区间 30-123%）。与驾驶其他车辆的年轻车主相比，驾驶高性能车辆的年轻车主的受伤风险估计增加了 101%（95%置信区间 69-171%，使用年龄在 40-59 岁的车主作为比较组）。尽管高性能车辆的相对风险较高，但它们在研究车队中相对较少，禁止这些车辆可能会使年轻驾驶员的受伤率降低 0.4%（新西兰）至 2.5%（澳大利亚的昆士兰州和维多利亚州）。此外，这里估计的潜在减少量还取决于对 100%遵守法规和对性能较低的车辆采取更安全的驾驶行为的不切实际的假设。尽管这些车辆在年轻人拥有时比其他车辆具有更高的统计显著碰撞和受伤风险，但对年轻驾驶员实施车辆限制存在相当大的实施和持续执行成本，这些成本可能超过这些潜在的安全益处。
