Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, 2607 Hearst Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720-7320, USA.
Demography. 2013 Jun;50(3):971-91. doi: 10.1007/s13524-012-0189-6.
This article assesses whether international migration from Mexico affects the marital, fertility, schooling, and employment outcomes of the Mexican women who remain behind by exploiting variation over time as well as across Mexican states in the demographic imbalance between men and women. I construct a gauge of the relative supply of men for women of different age groups based on state-level male and female population counts and the empirically observed propensity of men of specific ages to marry women of specific ages. Using Mexican census data from 1960 through 2000, I estimate a series of models in which the dependent variable is the intercensus change in an average outcome for Mexican women measured by state and for specific age groups, and the key explanatory variable is the change in the relative supply of men to women in that state/age group. I find that the declining relative supply of males positively and significantly affects the proportion of women who have never been married as well as the proportion of women who have never had a child. In addition, states experiencing the largest declines in the relative supply of men also experience relatively large increases in female educational attainment and female employment rates. However, I find little evidence that women who do marry match to men who are younger or less educated than themselves.
本文通过利用墨西哥各州男性与女性人口失衡的时间和空间变化，评估了来自墨西哥的国际移民是否会对留守女性的婚姻、生育、教育和就业产生影响。我根据各州的男性和女性人口统计数据以及特定年龄段男性与特定年龄段女性结婚的实际倾向，构建了一个衡量不同年龄组女性相对男性供给的指标。利用 1960 年至 2000 年的墨西哥人口普查数据，我估计了一系列模型，其中因变量是按州和特定年龄组衡量的墨西哥女性在两次人口普查之间的平均结果的变化，而关键的解释变量是该州/年龄组中男性对女性的相对供给的变化。我发现，男性相对供给的减少对从未结婚的女性比例以及从未生育的女性比例都有显著的正向影响。此外，经历男性相对供给下降幅度最大的州，女性的教育程度和就业率也相对较高。然而，我几乎没有发现证据表明已婚女性会与比自己年轻或教育程度低的男性匹配。
