Alarcón Jorge O, Pun Mónica, Gutiérrez César, Whittembury Alvaro, Tejada Romina, Suárez Luis, Rosell Gustavo, Bórquez Annick, Cuchi Paloma
Sección de Epidemiología, Instituto de Medicina Tropical Daniel A. Carrión, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima, Perú.
Rev Peru Med Exp Salud Publica. 2012 Oct-Dec;29(4):452-60. doi: 10.1590/s1726-46342012000400006.
To estimate HIV incidence in the adult population of Peru, 2010, and analyze its distribution based on risk behavior.
The UNAIDS model was applied based on the modes of transmission (MoT). The information was obtained from the review detailed in 59 documents (1984 - 2008). National databases were also analyzed to obtain specific data. Final selection of data was validated by the technical group and a group of experts. After consultation with experts, values were corrected and an uncertainty analysis was conducted. The model was adjusted to 2009 national prevalence (0.45%).
Incidence estimated for 2010 was 0.03%, (4346 new infections). 84% of new infections concentrate on higher risk groups: men who have sex with men (55%) and people who have casual sex with heterosexuals (6.2%). The remaining 16% corresponds to low-risk heterosexual population. Heterosexual transmission accounts for 43% of new cases, 18% of which corresponds to female partners of high risk individuals. Only 2.2% of cases is related to female sexual work and 1.0% to injection drug users.
The model provides an estimation of the incidence and its distribution among risk groups according to the mode of transmission, consistent with the HIV case reporting. The model creates scenarios to help decision making and policy formulation, as well as surveillance and planning of prevention and control.
估算2010年秘鲁成年人口中的艾滋病毒发病率，并根据风险行为分析其分布情况。
基于传播模式（MoT）应用联合国艾滋病规划署模型。信息来自对59份文件（1984 - 2008年）详细审查。还分析了国家数据库以获取具体数据。数据的最终选定由技术小组和一组专家进行验证。在与专家协商后，对数值进行了校正并进行了不确定性分析。该模型根据2009年全国流行率（0.45%）进行了调整。
2010年估计发病率为0.03%（4346例新感染）。84%的新感染集中在高风险群体：男男性行为者（55%）和与异性有随意性行为者（6.2%）。其余16%对应低风险异性恋人群。异性传播占新病例的43%，其中18%对应高风险个体的女性伴侣。仅2.2%的病例与女性性工作者有关，1.0%与注射吸毒者有关。
该模型根据传播模式提供了发病率及其在风险群体中的分布估计，与艾滋病毒病例报告一致。该模型创建了情景以帮助决策和政策制定，以及预防和控制的监测与规划。
