Laboratory of Population Economics and Demography, Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia.
PLoS One. 2012;7(11):e49986. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0049986. Epub 2012 Nov 30.
The last decade witnessed growing differences in abortion dynamics in Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine despite demographic, social, and historical similarities of these nations. This paper investigates changes in birth control practices in the three countries and searches for an explanation of the diverging trends in abortion.
Official abortion and contraceptive use statistics, provided by national statistical agencies, were analysed. Respective laws and other legal documents were examined and compared between the three countries. To disclose inter-country differences in prevalence of the modern methods of contraception and its association with major demographic and social factors, an analysis of data from national sample surveys was performed, including binary logistic regression.
The growing gap in abortion rate in Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine is a genuine phenomenon, not a statistical artefact. The examination of abortion and prevalence of contraception based on official statistics and three national sample surveys did not reveal any unambiguous factors that could explain differences in abortion dynamics in Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine. However, it is very likely that the cause of the inter-country discrepancies lies in contraceptive behavior itself, in adequacies of contraceptive knowledge and practices. Additionally, large differences in government policies, which are very important in shaping contraceptive practices of the population, were detected.
Since the end of the 1990s, the Russian government switched to archaic ideology in the area of reproductive health and family planning and neglects evidence-based arguments. Such an extreme turn in the governmental position is not observed in Belarus or Ukraine. This is an important factor contributing to the slowdown in the decrease of abortion rates in Russia.
尽管白俄罗斯、俄罗斯和乌克兰在人口、社会和历史方面存在相似之处,但在过去的十年中,这三个国家的堕胎动态存在着越来越大的差异。本文研究了这三个国家生育控制实践的变化,并试图解释堕胎趋势的差异。
分析了由国家统计机构提供的官方堕胎和避孕使用统计数据,并对三国的相关法律和其他法律文件进行了审查和比较。为了揭示现代避孕方法在三国的流行率及其与主要人口和社会因素之间的关联,对包括二元逻辑回归在内的全国抽样调查数据进行了分析。
白俄罗斯、俄罗斯和乌克兰的堕胎率差距不断扩大是一个真实的现象,而不是统计上的假象。对基于官方统计数据和三项全国抽样调查的堕胎和避孕流行率进行的检查,没有发现任何能解释白俄罗斯、俄罗斯和乌克兰堕胎动态差异的明确因素。然而,导致三国之间差异的原因很可能在于避孕行为本身,即避孕知识和实践的不足。此外,还发现了政府政策方面的巨大差异,这些政策对塑造人口的避孕行为非常重要。
自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来,俄罗斯政府在生殖健康和计划生育领域转向了陈旧的意识形态,忽视了基于证据的论点。在白俄罗斯或乌克兰,没有观察到政府立场如此极端的转变。这是导致俄罗斯堕胎率下降速度放缓的一个重要因素。