Gippsland Medical School, Monash University, Churchill, Victoria, Australia.
J Clin Neurosci. 2013 May;20(5):670-5. doi: 10.1016/j.jocn.2012.05.040. Epub 2013 Jan 23.
Long-term survival is an often used, yet poorly defined, concept in the study of glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). This study suggests a method to define a time-point for long-term survival in patients with GBM. Data for this study were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End-Results database, which was limited to the most recent data using the period approach. Relative survival measures were used and modelled using piecewise constant hazards to describe the survival profile of long-term survivors of GBM. For patients with GBM, the first quarter of the second year (5th quarter) post-diagnosis is considered to be the peak incidence of mortality with an excess hazard ratio of 7.58 (95% confidence interval=6.54, 8.78) and the risk of death due to GBM decreases to half of its rate at 2.5 years post-diagnosis. The 2.5-year cumulative relative survival (CRS) for all patients is approximately 8%, with a CRS of approximately 2% at 10 years. Using the definition of long-term survival suggested here, the results indicate that long-term survivors are patients who survive at least 2.5 years post-diagnosis. The most likely time period for patients with GBM to die is the 5th quarter post-diagnosis.
长期生存是胶质母细胞瘤（GBM）研究中常用但定义不明确的概念。本研究提出了一种在 GBM 患者中定义长期生存时间点的方法。本研究的数据来自监测、流行病学和最终结果数据库，该数据库仅限于使用期间方法的最新数据。相对生存率的衡量标准是使用分段常数风险进行建模，以描述 GBM 长期幸存者的生存情况。对于 GBM 患者，诊断后第二年的第一个季度（第 5 个季度）被认为是死亡率的峰值，超额风险比为 7.58（95%置信区间=6.54，8.78），并且死于 GBM 的风险降低到诊断后 2.5 年时的一半。所有患者的 2.5 年累积相对生存率（CRS）约为 8%，10 年时的 CRS 约为 2%。使用此处建议的长期生存定义，结果表明长期幸存者是至少在诊断后存活 2.5 年的患者。GBM 患者最有可能死亡的时间是诊断后第 5 个季度。
