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分析异性恋和同性恋人群中的性传播疾病传播情况。

Analysis of sexually transmitted disease spreading in heterosexual and homosexual populations.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi, People's Republic of China.

出版信息

Math Biosci. 2013 Apr;242(2):143-52. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2013.01.005. Epub 2013 Feb 8.

Abstract

Sexually transmitted diseases can pose major health problems so scientists and health agencies are very concerned about the spread of these diseases. Sexually transmitted diseases spread through a network of contacts created by the formation of sexual partnerships. In the paper, the spreading of sexually transmitted diseases on bipartite scale-free graphs, representing heterosexual and homosexual contact networks, is considered. We propose an SIS model on sexual contact networks. We analytically derive the expression for the epidemic threshold and its dependence with the ratio of female and male in finite populations. It is shown that if the basic reproduction number R0 is less than 1 then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if R0>1 then the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and there is a unique endemic equilibrium, which asymptotically attracts all nontrivial solutions. These theoretical results are supported by numerical simulations. We also carry out some sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number R0 in terms of various model parameters.

摘要

性传播疾病可能会导致严重的健康问题,因此科学家和卫生机构非常关注这些疾病的传播。性传播疾病通过性伙伴关系形成的接触网络传播。本文考虑了在二部无标度图上传播性传播疾病,这些图表示异性恋和同性恋接触网络。我们提出了一种性接触网络上的 SIS 模型。我们分析推导了传染病阈值的表达式及其与有限群体中男女比例的关系。结果表明,如果基本再生数 R0 小于 1,则无病平衡点全局渐近稳定;如果 R0>1,则无病平衡点不稳定,存在唯一的地方病平衡点,它渐近吸引所有非平凡解。这些理论结果得到了数值模拟的支持。我们还对基本再生数 R0 进行了一些基于各种模型参数的敏感性分析。

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