Javoiš Juhan
Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Vanemuise 46, 51014 Tartu, Estonia.
Theory Biosci. 2013 Jun;132(2):123-32. doi: 10.1007/s12064-013-0176-5. Epub 2013 Feb 14.
The most widely known theoretical basis for the hypothesis of terminal investment is the classic model by George C. Williams (1966). Although this model predicts that reproductive effort (i.e. the proportion of available resources devoted to reproduction) increases with decreasing reproductive value, it implies that reproductive allocation in absolute terms should remain stable. This contrasts with the empirical evidence on terminal investment reported to date: the vast majority of positive case studies report an increase in some aspect of reproductive allocation in absolute terms. Also, a substantial number of studies have failed to record terminal investment, despite expectations. Here, I present a simple conceptual model which explains such results. I argue that to explain terminal investment, an organism's reproductive capacity must not be considered as a common pool of resources (often described by the term 'reproductive value'), but as a set of different resources which are not easily convertible to each other, and should be exhausted in balance. Thus, if one resource accidentally decreases, in response, the others must be expended at higher rate. To test this model, each reproductive allocation should be measured in a more specific currency (or currencies) than traditional 'reproductive effort'. The model is consistent with both the positive and the negative case reports on terminal investment.
终端投资假说最为人熟知的理论基础是乔治·C·威廉姆斯(1966年)提出的经典模型。尽管该模型预测繁殖努力(即用于繁殖的可用资源比例)会随着繁殖价值的降低而增加,但这意味着绝对意义上的繁殖分配应该保持稳定。这与迄今为止报道的关于终端投资的实证证据形成了对比:绝大多数正面案例研究报告称,绝对意义上的繁殖分配在某些方面有所增加。此外,尽管有预期,但大量研究未能记录到终端投资。在此,我提出一个简单的概念模型来解释这些结果。我认为,要解释终端投资,不能将生物体的繁殖能力视为一个共同的资源池(通常用“繁殖价值”一词来描述),而应视为一组不同的资源,这些资源不易相互转换,且应以平衡的方式耗尽。因此,如果一种资源意外减少,作为回应,其他资源必须以更高的速率消耗。为了检验这个模型,每种繁殖分配都应该用比传统的“繁殖努力”更具体的一种或多种货币来衡量。该模型与关于终端投资的正面和负面案例报告均一致。