Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2013 Mar 12;110(11):4309-14. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1210423110. Epub 2013 Feb 25.
As the Earth's third pole, the Tibetan Plateau has experienced a pronounced warming in the past decades. Recent studies reported that the start of the vegetation growing season (SOS) in the Plateau showed an advancing trend from 1982 to the late 1990s and a delay from the late 1990s to 2006. However, the findings regarding the SOS delay in the later period have been questioned, and the reasons causing the delay remain unknown. Here we explored the alpine vegetation SOS in the Plateau from 1982 to 2011 by integrating three long-term time-series datasets of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS, 1982-2006), SPOT VEGETATION (SPOT-VGT, 1998-2011), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, 2000-2011). We found GIMMS NDVI in 2001-2006 differed substantially from SPOT-VGT and MODIS NDVIs and may have severe data quality issues in most parts of the western Plateau. By merging GIMMS-based SOSs from 1982 to 2000 with SPOT-VGT-based SOSs from 2001 to 2011 we found the alpine vegetation SOS in the Plateau experienced a continuous advancing trend at a rate of ∼1.04 d·y(-1) from 1982 to 2011, which was consistent with observed warming in springs and winters. The satellite-derived SOSs were proven to be reliable with observed phenology data at 18 sites from 2003 to 2011; however, comparison of their trends was inconclusive due to the limited temporal coverage of the observed data. Longer-term observed data are still needed to validate the phenology trend in the future.
作为地球的第三极,青藏高原在过去几十年中经历了显著的变暖。最近的研究报告称,高原植被生长季节(SOS)的开始在 1982 年至 90 年代末呈提前趋势,而在 90 年代末至 2006 年呈延迟趋势。然而,关于后期 SOS 延迟的发现受到了质疑,其延迟的原因仍不清楚。在这里,我们通过整合三个长期的归一化差异植被指数(NDVI)时间序列数据集来探索青藏高原的高山植被 SOS:全球清单建模与制图研究(GIMMS,1982-2006 年)、SPOT 植被(SPOT-VGT,1998-2011 年)和中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS,2000-2011 年)。我们发现,GIMMS 的 NDVI 在 2001-2006 年与 SPOT-VGT 和 MODIS 的 NDVI 有很大差异,在青藏高原的大部分地区可能存在严重的数据质量问题。通过将基于 GIMMS 的 1982-2000 年的 SOS 与基于 SPOT-VGT 的 2001-2011 年的 SOS 进行合并,我们发现青藏高原的高山植被 SOS 从 1982 年到 2011 年以约 1.04 d·y(-1)的速度连续呈提前趋势,这与春季和冬季观测到的变暖一致。卫星衍生的 SOS 与 2003 年至 2011 年的 18 个站点的观测物候数据具有很好的一致性;然而,由于观测数据的时间覆盖范围有限,它们的趋势比较并不确定。未来仍需要更长期的观测数据来验证物候趋势。