Yang Tong, Dong Jinwei, Huang Lin, Li Yuzhe, Yan Huimin, Zhai Jun, Wang Jie, Jin Zhenong, Zhang Geli
College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China.
Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
Fundam Res. 2023 Jan 12;3(2):188-200. doi: 10.1016/j.fmre.2023.01.003. eCollection 2023 Mar.
Forage supply has been stressed due to the rapid increase in China's livestock consumption. However, the long-term dynamics of the relationships between forage demand and multi-sourced supply are not understood. Here, we examine the annual forage demand, or practical carrying capacity (PCC), and supply, or theoretical carrying capacity (TCC) from 2000 to 2019 in China. We construct a forage supply-demand index (FSDI) to represent the forage supply pressure using MODIS-derived net primary productivity products and provincial statistical datasets, and we consider two scenarios. First, natural grasslands are the sole source of forage. Second, natural grassland forage supply is supplemented with straw crops. We find an increase in PCC in northwestern China's major pastoral and agropastoral provincial regions, including Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Ningxia and Qinghai, at rate of 0.24-3.59 million sheep units (SU) a year. As the primary source of forage, the theoretical carrying capacity of natural grasslands (TCC) expanded at a rate of 3 million SU/yr nationally. Crop straws fed 126.58 million SU nationally in 2019, which accounted for 11.3% of the total practical carrying capacity and alleviated the forage supply pressure by reducing FSDI by 26.56%. During 2000-2019, the theoretical carrying capacity of straw crops (TCC) increased rapidly from 76.5 million SU to 126.6 million SU, which accounted for 10%-15% of the total forage supply at the national scale. We also discovered large carrying capacity gaps (TCC) in the northwestern pastoral provincial regions of Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Gansu, and some agricultural provinces such as Shandong and Henan, when we considered forage supply from both natural grasslands and straw crops. Our findings showed a large forage gap in the traditional pastoral regions, and we also discussed green fodder as a potential solution for balancing the supply of and demand for forage, which may shed light on crop and forage planning.
由于中国牲畜消费量的迅速增加，饲料供应面临压力。然而，人们对饲料需求与多源供应之间关系的长期动态尚不清楚。在此，我们研究了2000年至2019年中国的年度饲料需求（即实际载畜量，PCC）和供应（即理论载畜量，TCC）。我们利用中分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）获取的净初级生产力产品和省级统计数据集构建了一个饲料供需指数（FSDI）来表示饲料供应压力，并考虑了两种情景。第一种情景是天然草原是唯一的饲料来源。第二种情景是天然草原饲料供应辅以秸秆作物。我们发现，中国西北部主要牧区和农牧交错区的实际载畜量有所增加，包括内蒙古、甘肃、宁夏和青海，每年增加0.24 - 359万个羊单位（SU）。作为饲料的主要来源，全国天然草原的理论载畜量（TCC）以每年300万个羊单位的速度增长。2019年，全国农作物秸秆喂养了1.2658亿个羊单位，占实际载畜总量的11.3%，并通过将饲料供需指数降低26.56%缓解了饲料供应压力。在2000 - 2019年期间，秸秆作物的理论载畜量（TCC）从7650万个羊单位迅速增加到1.266亿个羊单位，在全国范围内占总饲料供应的10% - 15%。当我们考虑天然草原和秸秆作物的饲料供应时，我们还发现内蒙古、新疆、甘肃等西北牧区省份以及山东和河南等一些农业省份存在较大的载畜量差距（TCC）。我们的研究结果显示了传统牧区存在较大的饲料缺口，并且我们还讨论了绿色饲料作为平衡饲料供需的潜在解决方案，这可能为作物和饲料规划提供启示。
