University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, Scotland, UK.
Glob Chang Biol. 2013 Aug;19(8):2285-302. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12160. Epub 2013 May 29.
Feeding 9-10 billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greatest challenges facing humanity. Both challenges must be met while reducing the impact of land management on ecosystem services that deliver vital goods and services, and support human health and well-being. Few studies to date have considered the interactions between these challenges. In this study we briefly outline the challenges, review the supply- and demand-side climate mitigation potential available in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use AFOLU sector and options for delivering food security. We briefly outline some of the synergies and trade-offs afforded by mitigation practices, before presenting an assessment of the mitigation potential possible in the AFOLU sector under possible future scenarios in which demand-side measures codeliver to aid food security. We conclude that while supply-side mitigation measures, such as changes in land management, might either enhance or negatively impact food security, demand-side mitigation measures, such as reduced waste or demand for livestock products, should benefit both food security and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Demand-side measures offer a greater potential (1.5-15.6 Gt CO2 -eq. yr(-1) ) in meeting both challenges than do supply-side measures (1.5-4.3 Gt CO2 -eq. yr(-1) at carbon prices between 20 and 100 US$ tCO2 -eq. yr(-1) ), but given the enormity of challenges, all options need to be considered. Supply-side measures should be implemented immediately, focussing on those that allow the production of more agricultural product per unit of input. For demand-side measures, given the difficulties in their implementation and lag in their effectiveness, policy should be introduced quickly, and should aim to codeliver to other policy agenda, such as improving environmental quality or improving dietary health. These problems facing humanity in the 21st Century are extremely challenging, and policy that addresses multiple objectives is required now more than ever.
到 2050 年养活 90 亿至 100 亿人口并防止气候变化危险加剧是人类面临的两大挑战。在减少土地管理对提供重要商品和服务并支持人类健康和福祉的生态系统服务的影响的同时，必须应对这两个挑战。迄今为止，很少有研究考虑这些挑战之间的相互作用。在本研究中，我们简要概述了这些挑战，审查了农业、林业和其他土地利用（AFOLU）部门的供应和需求方面的气候缓解潜力以及实现粮食安全的选择。我们简要概述了缓解实践带来的一些协同作用和权衡取舍，然后根据可能的未来情景，评估了在需求方面的措施共同有助于粮食安全的情况下，AFOLU 部门的缓解潜力。我们的结论是，虽然土地管理等供应方面的缓解措施可能会增强或负面影响粮食安全，但减少浪费或减少对牲畜产品的需求等需求方面的缓解措施应同时有利于粮食安全和温室气体（GHG）缓解。与供应方面的措施（碳价格在 20 美元至 100 美元/吨二氧化碳当量之间时为 1.5 至 4.3 亿吨二氧化碳当量）相比，需求方面的措施在应对这两大挑战方面具有更大的潜力（15.6 至 156 亿吨二氧化碳当量/年），但鉴于挑战的巨大性，所有选择都需要考虑。应立即实施供应方面的措施，重点放在那些能够提高单位投入的农业产量的措施上。对于需求方面的措施，鉴于其实施的困难和效果的滞后，应迅速出台政策，并旨在与其他政策议程共同实现，例如改善环境质量或改善饮食健康。这些 21 世纪人类面临的问题极具挑战性，现在比以往任何时候都更需要解决多项目标问题的政策。
