Curley S P, Yates J F, Young M J
Dept. of Information & Decision Sciences, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis 55455.
Acta Psychol (Amst). 1990 Apr;73(3):211-23. doi: 10.1016/0001-6918(90)90023-9.
Many studies have shown that people have difficulty judging the diagnostic value of conditional probability information with respect to one or more hypotheses. The present research addressed two aspects of performing the diagnostic task in a health care decision: (a) recognition of the information's importance, and (b) correct usage of that information. In experiment 1, health care providers, who are trained in, and regularly exposed, to conditional probabilities imparting diagnostic information, exhibited at least a rudimentary recognition of the need for this information in assessing diagnosticity. Experiment 2 indicated that health care and layperson subjects had difficulty in actually applying the information, however. This difficulty prompts a need for judgment aids and caution in using diagnostic information.
许多研究表明，人们在判断与一个或多个假设相关的条件概率信息的诊断价值时存在困难。本研究探讨了在医疗保健决策中执行诊断任务的两个方面：（a）认识信息的重要性，以及（b）正确使用该信息。在实验1中，接受过条件概率培训并经常接触到传递诊断信息的条件概率的医疗保健提供者，在评估诊断性时至少对这种信息的需求有初步认识。然而，实验2表明，医疗保健人员和外行人受试者在实际应用该信息时存在困难。这种困难促使人们需要判断辅助工具，并在使用诊断信息时保持谨慎。
