条件概率在诊断推理和临床决策中的重要性：眼科从业者入门指南
The Importance of Conditional Probability in Diagnostic Reasoning and Clinical Decision Making: A Primer for the Eye Care Practitioner.
作者信息
Sanfilippo Paul G, Hewitt Alex W, Mackey David A
机构信息
a Centre for Ophthalmology and Visual Science , University of Western Australia, Lions Eye Institute , Perth , Australia.
b Centre for Eye Research Australia , University of Melbourne, Royal Victorian Eye and Ear Hospital , Melbourne , Victoria , Australia.
出版信息
Ophthalmic Epidemiol. 2017 Apr;24(2):81-89. doi: 10.1080/09286586.2016.1255975. Epub 2017 Jan 19.
PURPOSE
To outline and detail the importance of conditional probability in clinical decision making and discuss the various diagnostic measures eye care practitioners should be aware of in order to improve the scope of their clinical practice.
METHODS
We conducted a review of the importance of conditional probability in diagnostic testing for the eye care practitioner.
RESULTS
Eye care practitioners use diagnostic tests on a daily basis to assist in clinical decision making and optimizing patient care and management. These tests provide probabilistic information that can enable the clinician to increase (or decrease) their level of certainty about the presence of a particular condition. While an understanding of the characteristics of diagnostic tests are essential to facilitate proper interpretation of test results and disease risk, many practitioners either confuse or misinterpret these measures.
CONCLUSIONS
In the interests of their patients, practitioners should be aware of the basic concepts associated with diagnostic testing and the simple mathematical rule that underpins them. Importantly, the practitioner needs to recognize that the prevalence of a disease in the population greatly determines the clinical value of a diagnostic test.
目的
概述并详述条件概率在临床决策中的重要性，并讨论眼科护理从业者为扩大其临床实践范围应了解的各种诊断方法。
方法
我们对条件概率在眼科护理从业者诊断测试中的重要性进行了综述。
结果
眼科护理从业者每天都使用诊断测试来辅助临床决策并优化患者护理与管理。这些测试提供概率性信息，使临床医生能够提高（或降低）其对特定病症存在的确定程度。虽然了解诊断测试的特征对于正确解释测试结果和疾病风险至关重要，但许多从业者要么混淆要么误解了这些方法。
结论
为了患者的利益，从业者应了解与诊断测试相关的基本概念以及支撑这些概念的简单数学规则。重要的是，从业者需要认识到人群中疾病的患病率在很大程度上决定了诊断测试的临床价值。
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