Centre INSERM U897, ISPED, CHU de Bordeaux, Bordeaux, France.
Neuroepidemiology. 2013;41(1):20-8. doi: 10.1159/000346497. Epub 2013 Mar 19.
BACKGROUND/AIMS: This study was designed to develop a practical risk score for predicting 5-year survival after the diagnosis of dementia.
Using the Paquid Study (prospective, population-based, long-term cohort study), we created a prognosis score with incident cases of dementia and validated it in another prospective, population-based, long-term cohort study, the Three City Study. -
Among the 3,777 subjects enrolled in the Paquid Study, 454 incident cases of dementia were included in this study. After a 5-year follow-up period, 319 (70.3%) were deceased. The score was constructed from three independent prognostic variables (gender, age at diagnosis and number of ADL restricted). The discriminant ability of the score was good with a c index of 0.754. Sensitivity was 64.7% and specificity 76.3%. In the validation cohort, the discriminant ability of the prognostic score with c statistics was 0.700. Sensitivity was 26.3% and specificity 95.4%.
The prognostic factors selected in the predictive model are easily assessable, so this simple score could provide helpful information for the management of dementia, particularly to identify patients with duration of the disease greater than 5 years.
背景/目的：本研究旨在开发一种实用的风险评分，用于预测痴呆诊断后 5 年的生存情况。
我们使用 Paquid 研究（前瞻性、基于人群、长期队列研究），创建了一个预后评分，纳入了痴呆的新发病例，并在另一个前瞻性、基于人群、长期队列研究——三城市研究中进行了验证。
在 Paquid 研究中纳入的 3777 名受试者中，本研究纳入了 454 例新发病例的痴呆。经过 5 年的随访期，有 319 例（70.3%）死亡。该评分由三个独立的预后变量（性别、诊断时年龄和 ADL 受限数量）构成。评分具有良好的判别能力，C 指数为 0.754。灵敏度为 64.7%，特异性为 76.3%。在验证队列中，预后评分的判别能力为 C 统计量为 0.700。灵敏度为 26.3%，特异性为 95.4%。
预测模型中选择的预后因素易于评估，因此这种简单的评分可以为痴呆的管理提供有帮助的信息，特别是可以识别出病程大于 5 年的患者。
