Ren Hong, Yuan Zheng-an, Gu Zhuo-ran, Hu Jia-yu, Wang Ye, Li Yan-ting
Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200336, China.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2013 Jan;47(1):63-6.
To develop a new transmission tracking analysis technique during incubation period of respiratory infectious diseases, and to discuss its practical value in the field survey of infectious diseases.
The classical epidemiological theory was integrated with geographic information system. The transmission tracking analysis technique was established based on the modeling platform ArcGIS Engine Developer Kit 9.3, using the techniques of address matching, shortest path analysis and buffer analysis, and programming by Visual C++. Eight serious sever acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cases in Shanghai in year 2003 were then chose as prototype to set up the test cases A-H. The electronic map and population density data were separately collected from Institute of Surveying and Mapping in Shanghai and Shanghai statistical yearbook 2003, to calculate and explore the parameters as length of transmission path, area of buffer zone and key departments by single and multi case analysis module.
The single case transmission tracking analysis showed that the length of transmission track of case A was 129.89 km during April 25th to 29th in 2003, including 12 tracing point and 108 intimate contacts, and the total area of buffer zone was 7.11 km(2) including 81 important institutes, naming 72 schools, 6 kindergartens and 3 gerocomiums. The multi-case transmission tracking analysis showed that the 8 cases shared 5 tracks without any temporal communication. However, there was a spatial communication whose length was 1.42 km and area was 0.60 km(2). There were no important institutes found in this communication area.
Transmission tracking technique is practicable and efficient to trace the source of infection, analyze the transmission tracks, establish the isolation buffer area and explore the important geographic positions in epidemiological investigation.
开发一种呼吸道传染病潜伏期传播追踪分析新技术，探讨其在传染病现场调查中的实用价值。
将经典流行病学理论与地理信息系统相结合。基于ArcGIS Engine Developer Kit 9.3建模平台，运用地址匹配、最短路径分析和缓冲区分析技术，通过Visual C++编程建立传播追踪分析技术。选取2003年上海市8例严重急性呼吸综合征（SARS）病例作为原型，设置测试用例A - H。分别从上海市测绘院和《上海统计年鉴2003》收集电子地图和人口密度数据，通过单病例和多病例分析模块计算并探索传播路径长度、缓冲区面积和关键部门等参数。
单病例传播追踪分析显示，病例A在2003年4月25日至29日期间传播轨迹长度为129.89千米，包括12个追踪点和108名密切接触者，缓冲区总面积为7.11平方千米，包括81个重要机构，其中72所学校、6所幼儿园和3所养老院。多病例传播追踪分析显示，8例病例共有5条轨迹且无时间上的交集。然而，存在一条空间交集，长度为1.42千米，面积为0.60平方千米。该交集区域未发现重要机构。
传播追踪技术在传染病调查中追踪传染源、分析传播轨迹、建立隔离缓冲区以及探索重要地理位置方面切实可行且高效。
