School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University, Durham, United Kingdom.
PLoS One. 2013 Apr 16;8(4):e61963. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0061963. Print 2013.
Whereas fossil evidence indicates extensive treeless vegetation and diverse grazing megafauna in Europe and northern Asia during the last glacial, experiments combining vegetation models and climate models have to-date simulated widespread persistence of trees. Resolving this conflict is key to understanding both last glacial ecosystems and extinction of most of the mega-herbivores. Using a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) we explored the implications of the differing climatic conditions generated by a general circulation model (GCM) in "normal" and "hosing" experiments. Whilst the former approximate interstadial conditions, the latter, designed to mimic Heinrich Events, approximate stadial conditions. The "hosing" experiments gave simulated European vegetation much closer in composition to that inferred from fossil evidence than did the "normal" experiments. Given the short duration of interstadials, and the rate at which forest cover expanded during the late-glacial and early Holocene, our results demonstrate the importance of millennial variability in determining the character of last glacial ecosystems.
尽管化石证据表明,在上一个冰河时代,欧洲和北亚地区的植被以无树为主,食草巨型动物种类繁多,但将植被模型和气候模型结合起来的实验迄今为止模拟出了树木广泛存在的情况。解决这一冲突是理解上一个冰河时代的生态系统和大多数巨型食草动物灭绝的关键。本研究使用动态植被模型(DVM),通过“正常”和“喷淋”实验,探索了由一个通用环流模型(GCM)产生的不同气候条件的影响。前者近似间冰期条件,后者旨在模拟 Heinrich 事件,近似冰期条件。与“正常”实验相比,“喷淋”实验模拟的欧洲植被在组成上更接近化石证据推断的结果。鉴于间冰期的持续时间较短,以及森林在晚冰河时代和全新世早期扩展的速度,我们的结果表明,千年变异性在确定上一个冰河时代生态系统的特征方面具有重要意义。