Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, The Netherlands; SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research, The Netherlands.
Accid Anal Prev. 2014 Jan;62:331-40. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2013.03.032. Epub 2013 Apr 4.
Scientific literature lacks a model which combines exposure to risk, risk, and the relationship between them. This paper presents a conceptual road safety framework comprising mutually interacting factors for exposure to risk resulting from travel behaviour (volumes, modal split, and distribution of traffic over time and space) and for risk (crash and injury risk). The framework's three determinants for travel behaviour are locations of activities; resistances (generalized transport costs); needs, opportunities, and abilities. Crash and injury risks are modelled by the three 'safety pillars': infrastructure, road users and the vehicles they use. Creating a link in the framework between risk and exposure is important because of the 'non-linear relationship' between them, i.e. risk tends to decrease as exposure increases. Furthermore, 'perceived' risk (a type of travel resistance) plays a role in mode choice, i.e. the perception that a certain type of vehicle is unsafe can be a deterrent to its use. This paper uses theories to explain how the elements in the model interact. Cycling is an area where governments typically have goals for both mobility and safety. To exemplify application of the model, the paper uses the framework to link research on cycling (safety) to land use and infrastructure. The model's value lies in its ability to identify potential consequences of measures and policies for both exposure and risk. This is important from a scientific perspective and for policy makers who often have objectives for both mobility and safety.
科学文献缺乏一种将风险暴露、风险和它们之间的关系结合起来的模型。本文提出了一个概念性的道路安全框架，包括由出行行为（交通量、模式划分和交通在时间和空间上的分布）和风险（事故和伤害风险）产生的风险暴露的相互作用的因素。该框架的出行行为的三个决定因素是活动地点；阻力（广义交通成本）；需求、机会和能力。事故和伤害风险由三个“安全支柱”来建模：基础设施、道路使用者和他们使用的车辆。在风险和暴露之间建立联系很重要，因为它们之间存在“非线性关系”，即风险随着暴露的增加而降低。此外，“感知”风险（一种出行阻力）在模式选择中发挥作用，即对某种类型车辆不安全的感知可能会阻止其使用。本文利用理论解释了模型中的元素如何相互作用。自行车出行是政府通常在移动性和安全性方面都有目标的一个领域。为了举例说明模型的应用，本文使用该框架将自行车出行（安全）的研究与土地利用和基础设施联系起来。该模型的价值在于它能够识别措施和政策对暴露和风险的潜在影响。这对于科学研究和政策制定者都很重要，因为他们通常在移动性和安全性方面都有目标。
