Exhaled volatile organic compounds predict exacerbations of childhood asthma in a 1-year prospective study.

The hypothesis was that prediction of asthma exacerbations in children is possible by profiles of exhaled volatile organic compounds (VOCs), a noninvasive measure of airway inflammation. The aims of the present study were to determine: 1) whether VOCs in exhaled breath are able to predict asthma exacerbations; and 2) the time course and chemical background of the most predictive VOCs. A prospective study was performed in 40 children with asthma over 1 year. At standard 2-month intervals, exhaled nitric oxide fraction (FeNO), VOC profiles in exhaled breath samples, lung function and symptoms were determined in a standardised way. VOC profiles were analysed by gas chromatography-time-of-flight mass spectrometry. 16 out of 40 children experienced an exacerbation. With support vector machine analysis, the most optimal model of baseline measurements versus exacerbation within patients was based on six VOCs (correct classification 96%, sensitivity 100% and specificity 93%). The model of baseline values of patients with compared to those without an exacerbation consisted of seven VOCs (correct classification 91%, sensitivity 79% and specificity 100%). FeNO and lung function were not predictive for exacerbations. This study indicates that a combination of different exhaled VOCs is able to predict exacerbations of childhood asthma.