Coughlin T A, McBride T D, Liu K
Health Policy Center, Urban Institute, Washington, DC 20037.
Med Care. 1990 Jul;28(7):616-31. doi: 10.1097/00005650-199007000-00007.
This article describes an analysis of data from the 1982-84 National Long-Term Care Demonstration Project to estimate the risks of any nursing home admission, a temporary or transitory admission, and a permanent admission. Using a multinomial logit model, the relative predictive power of several individual characteristics on nursing home use and admission type were evaluated. It was found that the cognitively impaired subgroup was at the greatest risk of entering a nursing home, especially on a permanent basis. The results also demonstrated that the combination of cognitive impairment and functional impairment further increased the risk of a nursing home admission, particularly a permanent one. Other subgroups that had high probabilities of experiencing a nursing home admission were whites, nonhomeowners, those living alone, and those with prior nursing home stays. The findings identified several aged subgroups that were at no greater risk of nursing home admission regardless of admission type: older persons who were unmarried, had a low income, had no assets, and those on Medicaid.
本文描述了对1982 - 1984年国家长期护理示范项目数据的分析，以估计入住任何养老院、临时或短期入住以及长期入住的风险。使用多项逻辑回归模型，评估了几个个体特征对养老院使用和入住类型的相对预测能力。研究发现，认知受损亚组进入养老院的风险最大，尤其是长期入住。结果还表明，认知障碍和功能障碍相结合进一步增加了入住养老院的风险，尤其是长期入住的风险。其他有较高入住养老院概率的亚组包括白人、非房主、独居者以及曾入住过养老院的人。研究结果确定了几个老年亚组，无论入住类型如何，他们入住养老院的风险都不会更高：未婚、低收入、无资产的老年人以及医疗补助计划覆盖的人群。
