老年人了解他们入住养老院的风险吗？
Do seniors understand their risk of moving to a nursing home?
作者信息
Taylor Donald H, Osterman Jan, Will Acuff S, Ostbye Truls
机构信息
Center for Health Policy, Law and Management, 125 Old Chemistry Building, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
出版信息
Health Serv Res. 2005 Jun;40(3):811-28. doi: 10.1111/j.1475-6773.2005.00386.x.
OBJECTIVE
To determine whether seniors understand their risk of moving to a nursing home. Data Sources. We used longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) database. AHEAD is a nationally representative survey (n=8,203) of community dwellers aged 70+ years and their spouses.
STUDY DESIGN
We followed respondents for 5 years from the date of the first interview fielded in 1993. Our primary dependent variable was whether respondents moved to a nursing home within 5 years of baseline; self-assessed probability of moving to a nursing home within 5 years, also assessed at baseline, was the primary explanatory variable.
PRINCIPAL FINDINGS
We found that seniors who believed they were more likely to move to a nursing home within 5 years were indeed more likely to do so, and that most elders overestimated their likelihood of moving to a nursing home.
CONCLUSIONS
Low rates of private long-term care insurance are not plausibly a result of seniors underestimating their personal risk of moving to a nursing home; such an assumption is inherent in many strategies to plan for the future long-term care needs of the baby boom generation.
目的
确定老年人是否了解自己入住养老院的风险。数据来源。我们使用了来自“最年长者资产与健康动态”（AHEAD）数据库的纵向数据。AHEAD是一项针对70岁及以上社区居民及其配偶的全国代表性调查（n = 8203）。
研究设计
我们从1993年首次进行访谈之日起对受访者进行了5年的跟踪。我们的主要因变量是受访者在基线后的5年内是否入住养老院；同样在基线时评估的自我评估的5年内入住养老院的概率是主要解释变量。
主要发现
我们发现，那些认为自己在5年内更有可能入住养老院的老年人确实更有可能这样做，而且大多数老年人高估了自己入住养老院的可能性。
结论
私人长期护理保险的低费率不太可能是老年人低估自己入住养老院的个人风险的结果；这种假设是许多为婴儿潮一代未来长期护理需求制定计划的策略所固有的。
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