Dormady Noah, Szelazek Thomas, Rose Adam
Assistant Professor, John Glenn School of Public Affairs, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA.
GIS and Economic Analyst, Point C Partners and RideAmigos Corp, Pasadena, CA, USA.
Risk Anal. 2014 Jan;34(1):187-201. doi: 10.1111/risa.12059. Epub 2013 May 17.
This article provides a methodology for the economic analysis of the potential consequences of a simulated anthrax terrorism attack on real estate within the Seattle metropolitan area. We estimate spatially disaggregated impacts on median sales price of residential housing within the Seattle metro area following an attack on the central business district (CBD). Using a combination of longitudinal panel regression and GIS analysis, we find that the median sales price in the CBD could decline by as much as $280,000, and by nearly $100,000 in nearby communities. These results indicate that total residential property values could decrease by over $50 billion for Seattle, or a 33% overall decline. We combine these estimates with HUD's 2009 American Housing Survey (AHS) to further predict 70,000 foreclosures in Seattle spatial zones following the terrorism event.
本文提供了一种方法，用于对模拟炭疽恐怖袭击对西雅图大都市区房地产可能产生的后果进行经济分析。我们估计了在中央商务区（CBD）遭受袭击后，西雅图都会区内住宅房屋中位销售价格在空间上的细分影响。通过结合纵向面板回归和地理信息系统（GIS）分析，我们发现中央商务区的中位销售价格可能下降多达28万美元，附近社区则下降近10万美元。这些结果表明，西雅图的住宅物业总价值可能减少超过500亿美元，即总体下降33%。我们将这些估计结果与美国住房和城市发展部（HUD）2009年的美国住房调查（AHS）相结合，进一步预测恐怖主义事件后西雅图空间区域将有7万起止赎事件。
