Mala Pavla Zednikova
Department of Anthropology and Human Genetics, Charles University in Prague, Viničná 7, 128 43 Prague 2, Czech Republic.
J Forensic Sci. 2013 Jul;58(4):957-63. doi: 10.1111/1556-4029.12128. Epub 2013 May 21.
This study examines two recently proposed methods for predicting nose projection from the skull, those developed by Stephan et al. (Am J Phys Anthropol 122, 2003, 240) and Rynn et al. (Forensic Sci Med Pathol 6, 2010, 20). A sample of 86 lateral head cephalograms of adult subjects from Central Europe was measured, and the actual and predicted dimensions were compared. Regarding nose projection (the anterior and vertical position of the pronasale), in general, the method of Rynn et al. (Forensic Sci Med Pathol 6, 2010, 20) was found to perform better and with less error variance than the method of Stephan et al. (Am J Phys Anthropol 122, 2003, 240), but the mean difference between the actual and predicted values did not exceed 2.2 mm (6.5% of the actual dimension) in most of the variables tested. The vertical dimensions of the nose were predictable with greater accuracy than the horizontal dimensions. Although the mean error of both methods is not great in practice and thus both methods could be considered to be "accurate," the real variance of error should not be overlooked.
本研究考察了最近提出的两种从颅骨预测鼻突度的方法，即由斯特凡等人（《美国体质人类学杂志》122卷，2003年，第240页）和林恩等人（《法医学与病理学》6卷，2010年，第20页）开发的方法。对来自中欧的86名成年受试者的侧位头颅X线片样本进行了测量，并比较了实际尺寸和预测尺寸。关于鼻突度（鼻前点的前后和垂直位置），总体而言，发现林恩等人（《法医学与病理学》6卷，2010年，第20页）的方法比斯特凡等人（《美国体质人类学杂志》122卷，2003年，第240页）的方法表现更好且误差方差更小，但在大多数测试变量中，实际值与预测值之间的平均差异不超过2.2毫米（实际尺寸的6.5%）。鼻子的垂直尺寸比水平尺寸更易于准确预测。虽然两种方法在实际中的平均误差不大，因此两种方法都可被认为是“准确的”，但误差的实际方差不应被忽视。
