Department of Energy Resources Engineering, Stanford University , Stanford California 94305, USA.
Environ Sci Technol. 2013 Jul 16;47(14):8031-41. doi: 10.1021/es401419t. Epub 2013 Jul 1.
Some argue that peak conventional oil production is imminent due to physical resource scarcity. We examine the alternative possibility of reduced oil use due to improved efficiency and oil substitution. Our model uses historical relationships to project future demand for (a) transport services, (b) all liquid fuels, and (c) substitution with alternative energy carriers, including electricity. Results show great increases in passenger and freight transport activity, but less reliance on oil. Demand for liquids inputs to refineries declines significantly after 2070. By 2100 transport energy demand rises >1000% in Asia, while flattening in North America (+23%) and Europe (-20%). Conventional oil demand declines after 2035, and cumulative oil production is 1900 Gbbl from 2010 to 2100 (close to the U.S. Geological Survey median estimate of remaining oil, which only includes projected discoveries through 2025). These results suggest that effort is better spent to determine and influence the trajectory of oil substitution and efficiency improvement rather than to focus on oil resource scarcity. The results also imply that policy makers should not rely on liquid fossil fuel scarcity to constrain damage from climate change. However, there is an unpredictable range of emissions impacts depending on which mix of substitutes for conventional oil gains dominance-oil sands, electricity, coal-to-liquids, or others.
一些人认为，由于资源的物理稀缺性，石油产量峰值即将到来。我们研究了由于效率提高和石油替代而导致石油使用量减少的另一种可能性。我们的模型利用历史关系来预测未来对（a）运输服务、（b）所有液体燃料以及（c）用替代能源载体（包括电力）替代的需求。结果表明，客运和货运活动大大增加，但对石油的依赖程度降低。炼油厂液体原料需求在 2070 年后显著下降。到 2100 年，亚洲的交通能源需求增长超过 1000%，而北美（+23%）和欧洲（-20%）则趋于平稳。2035 年后，常规石油需求下降，2010 年至 2100 年累计石油产量为 1900 亿桶（接近美国地质调查局对剩余石油的中值估计，该估计仅包括截至 2025 年的预计发现量）。这些结果表明，最好将精力用于确定和影响石油替代和效率提高的轨迹，而不是关注石油资源的稀缺性。结果还表明，政策制定者不应该依赖液体化石燃料的稀缺性来限制气候变化造成的损害。然而，根据常规石油的替代品（油砂、电力、煤制油或其他替代品）获得主导地位的组合，排放影响的范围是不可预测的。
