[林州市1988年至2010年胃癌死亡率的时间趋势预测]

Liu Shu-zheng, Zhang Fang, Quan Pei-liang, Liu Zhi-cai, Yu Liang, Lu Jian-bang, Sun Xi-bin

Henan Cancer Research and Control Office, Zhengzhou, China.

Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2013 Feb;47(2):113-7.

OBJECTIVE

To describe the temporal trends in the mortality rate of gastric cancer during the period of 1988 and 2010, and to predict the gastric cancer mortality between 2016 - 2020.

METHODS

The data of gastric cancer mortality in Linzhou city between 1988 and 2010 was extracted from the cancer registry, including a total of 11 714 cases, covering 22 447 073 person-years. The mortality rate of gastric cancer of each 5-year period was calculated by sub-site and gender. Age-standardized rate (ASR) was calculated using the Chinese standard population in 1982. Intrinsic estimator (IE) model was used to fit the mortality trend by sub-site and gender, and to predict the mortality of gastric cancer in Linzhou city between 2016 and 2020.

RESULTS

From 1988 to 2010, the gastric cancer mortality in Linzhou city was 52.18/100 000 (11 714/22 447 073) with the ASR at 49.23/100 000; the mortality in male was 67.02/100 000 (7678/11 455 512) with ASR at 68.68/100 000 while the mortality in female was 36.72/100 000 (4036/10 991 561) with ASR at 32.12/100 000. The mortality of cardia carcinoma was 27.87/100 000 (6257/22 447 073) with the ASR at 26.37/100 000; while the mortality of non-cardia carcinoma was 24.31/100 000 (5457/22 447 073) with the ASR at 22.86/100 000. The ASR of gastric cancer during 1988 - 1990 was 63.37/100 000 (1653 cases) and decreased by 28.34%, to 45.41/100 000 (2622 cases) during 2006 - 2010. The IE model showed that the birth cohort effect decreased greatly. The mortality risk of cardia carcinoma in population born after 1950s, decreased significantly; and the mortality risk of non-cardia carcinoma in population born in 20 century continually decreased. The death of gastric cancer among the population over 30 years old was predicted to be 3626 cases, increasing by 40.60% compared with the number between 2006 and 2010 (2579 cases). Among them, the mortality of cardia carcinoma increased by 51.89% (predicted number between 2016 and 2020 was 2456 cases, and 1617 cases between 2006 and 2010), and the mortality of non-cardia carcinoma increased by 21.62% (predicted number between 2016 and 2020 was 1170 cases, and 962 cases between 2006 and 2010).

CONCLUSION

The mortality rate of gastric cancer in Linzhou city showed a decreasing trend during the period of 1988-2010, being mainly attributed to the cohort effect. However, the mortality will still increase in the future, between 2016 and 2020.

目的

描述1988年至2010年期间胃癌死亡率的时间趋势，并预测2016 - 2020年期间的胃癌死亡率。

方法

从癌症登记处提取林州市1988年至2010年期间的胃癌死亡数据，共11714例，涵盖22447073人年。按亚部位和性别计算每5年期间的胃癌死亡率。使用1982年中国标准人口计算年龄标准化率（ASR）。采用内禀估计器（IE）模型拟合按亚部位和性别的死亡率趋势，并预测林州市2016年至2020年期间的胃癌死亡率。

结果

1988年至2010年，林州市胃癌死亡率为52.18/10万（11714/22447073），ASR为49.23/10万；男性死亡率为67.02/10万（7678/11455512），ASR为68.68/10万，女性死亡率为36.72/10万（4036/10991561），ASR为32.12/10万。贲门癌死亡率为27.87/10万（6257/22447073），ASR为26.37/10万；非贲门癌死亡率为24.31/10万（5457/22447073），ASR为22.86/10万。1988 - 1990年期间胃癌的ASR为63.37/10万（1653例），到2006 - 2010年期间下降了28.34%，降至45.41/10万（2622例）。IE模型显示出生队列效应大幅下降。20世纪50年代以后出生人群中贲门癌的死亡风险显著降低；20世纪出生人群中非贲门癌的死亡风险持续下降。预计30岁以上人群中胃癌死亡病例为3626例，比2006年至2010年期间（2579例）增加40.60%。其中，贲门癌死亡率增加51.89%（2016年至2020年期间预测数为2456例，2006年至2010年期间为1617例），非贲门癌死亡率增加21.62%（2016年至2020年期间预测数为1170例，2006年至2010年期间为962例）。