Hu Wei, Liang Yayong, Zhang Shuishen, Hu Yi, Liu Jingeng
Department of Thoracic Surgery, First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou.
S Afr J Surg. 2013 May 3;51(2):62-6. doi: 10.7196/sajs.1453.
The standard predictive factors of actuarial survival such as T and N stage become less important as patients live for more than 10 years after treatment of cancer. Reports of actual 10-year survivors of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) are rare, and demographic and clinicopathological factors associated with 10-year survival have not been well documented. In this research we evaluated factors predictive of actual, as opposed to actuarial, 10-year survival.
We retrospectively analysed 1 046 patients who had undergone oesophagectomy for oesophageal SCC. The demographic and clinicopathological characteristics of patients who were alive more than 10 years after oesophagectomy and those of patients who had died were compared.
Univariate analysis showed that 18 factors differed significantly between the two groups. Based on logistic regression analysis, factors associated with 10-year survival were younger age, female gender, absence of dysphagia, a left transthoracic surgical approach, lower pathological T stage, and fewer metastatic lymph nodes.
The independent positive predictors of actual as opposed to actuarial 10-year survival are younger age, female gender, absence of dysphagia, lower pathological T stage, and fewer metastatic lymph nodes.
随着癌症患者在接受治疗后存活超过10年，诸如T分期和N分期等精算生存的标准预测因素变得不那么重要。食管鳞状细胞癌（SCC）实际10年幸存者的报告很少，且与10年生存相关的人口统计学和临床病理因素尚未得到充分记录。在本研究中，我们评估了实际（而非精算）10年生存的预测因素。
我们回顾性分析了1046例行食管鳞状细胞癌食管切除术的患者。比较了食管切除术后存活超过10年的患者与已死亡患者的人口统计学和临床病理特征。
单因素分析显示两组之间有18个因素存在显著差异。基于逻辑回归分析，与10年生存相关的因素包括年龄较小、女性、无吞咽困难、左胸入路手术、较低的病理T分期和较少的转移淋巴结。
实际10年生存（而非精算10年生存）的独立阳性预测因素为年龄较小、女性、无吞咽困难、较低的病理T分期和较少的转移淋巴结。
