Li Xinhai, Wang Yuan
Key Laboratory of Zoological Systematics and Evolution, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Integr Zool. 2013 Jun;8(2):124-35. doi: 10.1111/1749-4877.12000.
Species distribution models have been used extensively in many fields, including climate change biology, landscape ecology and conservation biology. In the past 3 decades, a number of new models have been proposed, yet researchers still find it difficult to select appropriate models for data and objectives. In this review, we aim to provide insight into the prevailing species distribution models for newcomers in the field of modelling. We compared 11 popular models, including regression models (the generalized linear model, the generalized additive model, the multivariate adaptive regression splines model and hierarchical modelling), classification models (mixture discriminant analysis, the generalized boosting model, and classification and regression tree analysis) and complex models (artificial neural network, random forest, genetic algorithm for rule set production and maximum entropy approaches). Our objectives are: (i) to compare the strengths and weaknesses of the models, their characteristics and identify suitable situations for their use (in terms of data type and species-environment relationships) and (ii) to provide guidelines for model application, including 3 steps: model selection, model formulation and parameter estimation.
物种分布模型已在许多领域广泛应用,包括气候变化生物学、景观生态学和保护生物学。在过去30年里,人们提出了许多新模型,但研究人员仍然难以针对数据和目标选择合适的模型。在本综述中,我们旨在为该建模领域的新手深入介绍主流的物种分布模型。我们比较了11种常用模型,包括回归模型(广义线性模型、广义相加模型、多元自适应回归样条模型和层次建模)、分类模型(混合判别分析、广义提升模型以及分类与回归树分析)和复杂模型(人工神经网络、随机森林、规则集生成遗传算法和最大熵方法)。我们的目标是:(i)比较各模型的优缺点、特征,并确定其适用的合适情形(根据数据类型和物种-环境关系);(ii)提供模型应用指南,包括三个步骤:模型选择、模型构建和参数估计。