From the Department of Pathology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (Drs Robboy and Bean); College of American Pathologists, Waukegan, Illinois (Mses Weintraub and Cantor-Weinberg, and Dr Gross); the Department of Pathology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico (Dr Horvath); the Department of Pathology, Southwest Washington Medical Center, Vancouver, Washington (Dr Jensen); the Department of Pathology, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama (Dr Alexander); the Department of Pathology, Holland Hospital, Holland, Michigan (Dr Fody); the Department of Pathology, North Shore-Long Island Jewish Health System, Manhasset, New York (Dr Crawford); ACL Labs, West Allis, Wisconsin (Dr Clark); the Department of Pathology, Lawrence General Hospital, Winchester, Massachusetts (Dr Joshi); the Department of Pathology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City (Dr Cohen); the Department of Pathology, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, New York (Dr Prystowsky); Grail Research, Mumbai, India (Mr Gupta); the Department of Pathology, The Methodist Hospital, Houston, Texas (Dr Powell); the Department of Pathology, Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Temple, Texas (Dr Speights); and the Department of Pathology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston (Dr Black-Schaffer).
Arch Pathol Lab Med. 2013 Dec;137(12):1723-32. doi: 10.5858/arpa.2013-0200-OA. Epub 2013 Jun 5.
Results of prior pathology workforce surveys have varied between a state of equilibrium and predictions of shortage.
To assess the current and future supply of pathologists, and apply a dynamic modeling tool for assessing the effects of changing market forces and emerging technologies on the supply of pathologists' services through 2030.
Data came from various sources, including the literature, College of American Pathologists' internal data, and primary research through custom-developed surveys for the membership and for pathology practice managers
Through 2010, there were approximately 18 000 actively practicing pathologists in the United States (5.7 per 100 000 population), approximately 93% of whom were board certified. Our model projects that the absolute and per capita numbers of practicing pathologists will decrease to approximately 14 000 full-time equivalent (FTE) pathologists or 3.7 per 100 000 in the coming 2 decades. This projection reflects that beginning in 2015, the numbers of pathologists retiring will increase precipitously, and is anticipated to peak by 2021. Including all types of separation, the net pathologist strength will begin falling by year 2015. Unless workforce entry or exit rates change, this trend will continue at least through 2030. These changes reflect the closure of many training programs 2 to 4 decades ago and the substantially decreased number of graduating residents.
This comprehensive analysis predicts that pathologist numbers will decline steadily beginning in 2015. Anticipated population growth in general and increases in disease incidence owing to the aging population, to be presented in a companion article on demand, will lead to a net deficit in excess of more than 5700 FTE pathologists. To reach the projected need in pathologist numbers of nearly 20 000 FTE by 2030 will require an increase from today of approximately 8.1% more residency positions. We believe a pathologist shortage will negatively impact both patient access to laboratory services and health care providers' abilities to deliver more effective health care to their patient populations.
先前的病理学劳动力调查结果在平衡状态和短缺预测之间存在差异。
评估当前和未来病理学家的供应情况，并应用动态建模工具，评估到 2030 年通过改变市场力量和新兴技术对病理学家服务供应的影响。
数据来自各种来源，包括文献、美国病理学家学院的内部数据以及通过为会员和病理实践经理定制调查获得的主要研究。
截至 2010 年，美国约有 18000 名活跃的执业病理学家（每 10 万人中有 5.7 名），其中约 93%的人持有委员会认证。我们的模型预测，未来 20 年内，执业病理学家的绝对数量和人均数量将减少到约 14000 名全职等效（FTE）病理学家或每 10 万人 3.7 名。这一预测反映出，从 2015 年开始，退休病理学家的人数将急剧增加，并预计到 2021 年达到峰值。包括所有类型的离职，净病理学家人数将从 2015 年开始下降。除非劳动力进入或退出率发生变化，否则这种趋势将至少持续到 2030 年。这些变化反映了 2 至 4 十年前许多培训项目的关闭以及毕业住院医师人数的大幅减少。
这项全面分析预测，从 2015 年开始，病理学家的数量将稳步下降。预计人口增长和人口老龄化导致的疾病发病率增加将在关于需求的另一篇文章中提出，这将导致超过 5700 名 FTE 病理学家的净赤字。要到 2030 年达到近 20000 名 FTE 病理学家的预计需求，需要比今天增加约 8.1%的住院医师职位。我们认为，病理学家短缺将对实验室服务的患者获得以及医疗保健提供者向其患者群体提供更有效医疗的能力产生负面影响。
