Povinec P P, Gera M, Holý K, Hirose K, Lujaniené G, Nakano M, Plastino W, Sýkora I, Bartok J, Gažák M
Department of Nuclear Physics and Biophysics, Faculty of Mathematics, Physics and Informatics, Comenius University, 84248 Bratislava, Slovakia.
Appl Radiat Isot. 2013 Nov;81:383-92. doi: 10.1016/j.apradiso.2013.03.058. Epub 2013 Apr 9.
Large quantities of radionuclides were released in March-April 2011 during the accident of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant to the atmosphere and the ocean. Atmospheric and marine modeling has been carried out to predict the dispersion of radionuclides worldwide, to compare the predicted and measured radionuclide concentrations, and to assess the impact of the accident on the environment. Atmospheric Lagrangian dispersion modeling was used to simulate the dispersion of (137)Cs over America and Europe. Global ocean circulation model was applied to predict the dispersion of (137)Cs in the Pacific Ocean. The measured and simulated (137)Cs concentrations in atmospheric aerosols and in seawater are compared with global fallout and the Chernobyl accident, which represent the main sources of the pre-Fukushima radionuclide background in the environment. The radionuclide concentrations in the atmosphere have been negligible when compared with the Chernobyl levels. The maximum (137)Cs concentration in surface waters of the open Pacific Ocean will be around 20 Bq/m(3). The plume will reach the US coast 4-5 y after the accident, however, the levels will be below 3 Bq/m(3). All the North Pacific Ocean will be labeled with Fukushima (137)Cs 10 y after the accident with concentration bellow 1 Bq/m(3).
2011年3月至4月福岛第一核电站事故期间，大量放射性核素释放到大气和海洋中。已开展大气和海洋建模，以预测放射性核素在全球的扩散情况，比较预测和实测的放射性核素浓度，并评估事故对环境的影响。利用大气拉格朗日扩散模型模拟了铯-137在美国和欧洲的扩散。应用全球海洋环流模型预测铯-137在太平洋的扩散。将大气气溶胶和海水中实测和模拟的铯-137浓度与全球沉降以及切尔诺贝利事故进行比较，这两者代表了福岛事故前环境中放射性核素背景的主要来源。与切尔诺贝利事故的水平相比，大气中的放射性核素浓度可忽略不计。开阔太平洋表层水中铯-137的最大浓度将约为20贝克勒尔/立方米。事故发生4至5年后，羽流将抵达美国海岸，不过浓度将低于3贝克勒尔/立方米。事故发生10年后，整个北太平洋的铯-137浓度将低于1贝克勒尔/立方米。
