Selbmann H K
Institut für Medizinische Informationsverarbeitung, Universität Tübingen.
Fortschr Med. 1990 Jun 20;108(18):353-7.
Cancer is the second most common cause of death in West Germany. With increasing age, however, its significance decreases--in men and women to differing extents. The incidence and mortality of cancer increase exponentially with age; every second woman with fatal cancer was older than 75, the median age in men being 71. Since 1970, the age-corrected cancer mortality rate in men has remained unchanged, while in women it has decreased by about 9%. On the basis of the changing age structure in the general population, by the year 2005, an increase in deaths from cancer of almost one-third is expected, with 27,000 more deaths among men than among women. In view of all the possible influencing factors, the present data do not suffice to permit a causal interpretation of the statistical relationship between age and malignant tumor development.
癌症是西德第二大常见死因。然而，随着年龄增长，其重要性降低——男性和女性降低的程度不同。癌症的发病率和死亡率随年龄呈指数增长；每两名死于癌症的女性中就有一人年龄超过75岁，男性的中位年龄为71岁。自1970年以来，男性经年龄校正后的癌症死亡率保持不变，而女性的这一死亡率下降了约9%。基于普通人群不断变化的年龄结构，预计到2005年，癌症死亡人数将增加近三分之一，男性死亡人数比女性多27000人。鉴于所有可能的影响因素，目前的数据不足以对年龄与恶性肿瘤发生之间的统计关系进行因果解释。
