Department of Ophthalmology, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB.
Can J Ophthalmol. 2013 Jun;48(3):160-6. doi: 10.1016/j.jcjo.2013.01.017.
To describe the current national and regional population distribution of ophthalmologists in Canada and provide national predictions up to 2030.
Cross-sectional, study.
Ophthalmologists listed in the Canadian Medical Association (CMA) database and Canadian population.
The CMA database was used to determine the number and location of currently licensed ophthalmologists in Canada. Using Statistics Canada population data, we determined the ratio of ophthalmologists to 100,000 population. Projections were also made for the supply of ophthalmologists up to 2030 using the CMA Physician Resource Evaluation Template and assuming a status quo scenario in terms of attrition and gain factors.
In Canada, there are currently 3.35 ophthalmologists per 100,000 population. There is, however, significant regional disparity; provincial ratios vary from 5.40 (Nova Scotia) to 1.96 (Saskatchewan) and 0.89 in the territories. If 3 ophthalmologists per 100,000 is the ideal ratio, then 4 provinces and the territories were below this ratio, and of the 104 regions with an ophthalmologist, 22 were below the ratio. The national projection to 2030 is a slight increase to 3.38; however, the full-time equivalent ratio is expected to decrease from 3.29 in 2012 to 3.06 in 2030. For the population ≥ 65 years old, with a projected growth 4 times greater than that of ophthalmologists, the ratio of ophthalmologists to population ≥ 65 years old is projected to decline by 34%.
Although national estimates appear stable, there is significant regional variation. The projected marked growth of the population ≥ 65 years old may compromise our future ability to provide care at the current standard.
描述加拿大目前全国和地区的眼科医生人口分布情况，并对 2030 年全国的眼科医生人数进行预测。
横断面研究。
加拿大医学协会（CMA）数据库中列出的眼科医生和加拿大人口。
使用 CMA 数据库确定加拿大目前持照的眼科医生数量和所在地。利用加拿大统计局的人口数据，我们确定了每 10 万人中眼科医生的比例。还使用 CMA 医师资源评估模板对 2030 年之前的眼科医生供应情况进行了预测，并假设在损耗和增益因素方面保持现状。
加拿大目前每 10 万人中有 3.35 名眼科医生。但是，地区差异很大；省际比例从 5.40（新斯科舍省）到 1.96（萨斯喀彻温省）不等，而在地区则为 0.89。如果每 10 万人中有 3 名眼科医生是理想的比例，那么有 4 个省和地区低于这一比例，在有眼科医生的 104 个地区中，有 22 个地区低于这一比例。到 2030 年的全国预测是略有增加，达到 3.38；然而，预计全职等效比例将从 2012 年的 3.29 下降到 2030 年的 3.06。对于预计增长 4 倍于眼科医生的≥65 岁人群，预计眼科医生与≥65 岁人口的比例将下降 34%。
尽管全国估计似乎稳定，但存在显著的地区差异。预计≥65 岁人口的显著增长可能会影响我们未来以当前标准提供护理的能力。
