Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; The Netherlands Genomics Initiative-sponsored Netherlands Consortium for Healthy Aging (NGI-NCHA), Rotterdam/Leiden, The Netherlands.
Osteoarthritis Cartilage. 2013 Oct;21(10):1530-6. doi: 10.1016/j.joca.2013.06.012. Epub 2013 Jun 27.
To determine how well measures of hip geometry can predict radiological incident hip osteoarthritis (HOA) compared to well known clinical risk factors.
The study population is part of the Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based cohort. Baseline pelvic radiographs were used to measure hip geometry by two methods: Statistical Shape Models (SSM) and predefined geometry parameters (PGPs). Incident HOA (Kellgren and Lawrence (KL) ≥ 2) was assessed in 688 participants after 6.5 years without radiographic HOA at baseline. The ability to predict HOA was quantified using the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve (AUC).
Comparison of the two methods showed that both contain information that is not captured by the other method. At 6.5 years follow-up 132 hips had incident HOA. Five PGPs (Wiberg angle, Neck Width (NW), Pelvic Width (PW), Hip Axis Length (HAL) and Triangular Index (TI)) and two SSM (modes 5 and 9) were significant predictors of HOA (P = 0.007). Hip geometry added 7% to the prediction obtained by clinical risk factors (AUC = 0.67 (geometry), 0.66 (gender, age, Body Mass Index (BMI)) and combining both: AUC = 0.73, respectively). Mode 12 (associated with position of the femoral head in acetabulum) and Wiberg angle were predictors of HOA in participants without radiological signs at baseline (KL = 0). Although the strength of the prediction decreased for all variables at a longer follow-up, the contribution of hip geometry was still significant (P = 0.01).
Hip geometry has a moderate ability to predict HOA in participants with and without initial signs of osteoarthritis (OA), similar to and largely independent of the predictive value of clinical risk factors.
比较髋关节几何形状测量与已知临床危险因素相比，预测放射学髋关节骨关节炎（HOA）的效果。
研究人群是 Rotterdam 研究的一部分，这是一项前瞻性的基于人群的队列研究。使用两种方法（统计形状模型（SSM）和预定义几何参数（PGP））对基线骨盆射线照片进行髋关节几何形状测量。在没有基线放射学 HOA 的情况下，经过 6.5 年的随访，在 688 名参与者中评估了新发生的 HOA（Kellgren 和 Lawrence（KL）≥2）。使用接收者操作特征（ROC）曲线下面积（AUC）来量化预测 HOA 的能力。
两种方法的比较表明，它们都包含了其他方法无法捕捉的信息。在 6.5 年的随访中，有 132 个髋关节出现了新的 HOA。五个 PGP（Wiberg 角、颈宽（NW）、骨盆宽（PW）、髋关节轴长（HAL）和三角指数（TI））和两个 SSM（模式 5 和 9）是 HOA 的显著预测因素（P=0.007）。髋关节几何形状将临床危险因素的预测结果提高了 7%（AUC=0.67（几何）、0.66（性别、年龄、体重指数（BMI））和两者结合：AUC=0.73）。模式 12（与股骨头在髋臼中的位置相关）和 Wiberg 角是基线无放射学征象参与者的 HOA 预测因素（KL=0）。尽管在更长的随访中，所有变量的预测强度都有所下降，但髋关节几何形状的贡献仍然显著（P=0.01）。
髋关节几何形状对有和无初始骨关节炎（OA）迹象的参与者的 HOA 具有中度预测能力，与临床危险因素的预测价值相似，且在很大程度上独立。
